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Marcílio Dias v Figueirense

Marcílio Dias
2–2Full time
Figueirense

Copa Santa Catarina · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 02:30
Marcílio Dias 2–2 Figueirense MARCÍLIO DIAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Marcílio Dias win43%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.792
The market’s Brier score0.744

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Marcílio Dias win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Marcílio Dias 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Marcílio Dias v Figueirense
  4. 10′Marcílio Dias find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–11
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Marcílio Dias 1–0 Figueirense
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Marcílio Dias win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 11′We said Marcílio Dias at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–11
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–8
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Marcílio Dias win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  10. 40′A goal for Marcílio Dias on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  11. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Marcílio Dias 2–0 Figueirense
  12. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Marcílio Dias win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  13. 41′We said Marcílio Dias at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Marcílio Dias 2–0 Figueirense
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Marcílio Dias 2–0 Figueirense
  16. 48′We said Marcílio Dias at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  17. 81′We said Marcílio Dias at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 89′Figueirense score on 88′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  19. 89′Figueirense find the net on 89′. 2–2. 2–2 · 5–91–4
  20. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Marcílio Dias 2–1 Figueirense
  21. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Marcílio Dias 2–2 Figueirense
  22. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Marcílio Dias win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
  23. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Marcílio Dias win 5%)
  24. 90′We said Marcílio Dias at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–3
  25. 92′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 3–95–2
  26. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Marcílio Dias win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  27. FTFULL TIME Marcílio Dias 2–2 Figueirense
  28. FTMarcílio Dias 2–2 Figueirense · Marcílio Dias win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marcílio Dias are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marcílio Dias 43%, draw 28%, Figueirense 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Marcílio Dias v FigueirenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Marcílio Dias win43%
Draw28%
Figueirense win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:30

RoundGroup stage · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marcílio Dias

Figueirense

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

Last match: 10 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marcílio dias winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
43% The market33%
Us43%
Market33%

We make Marcílio Dias a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Marcílio Dias v Figueirense1.37 – 1.10
Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 30 AugW3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L0
The market · Marcílio Dias win33% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 23:14
Our probability · Marcílio Dias win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Marcílio Dias win43%33%+10
Draw28%30%−2
Figueirense win30%37%−7
Over 2.5 goals45%44%+1
Both teams to score50%50%0
Over 1.5 goals71%68%+3
Over 3.5 goals24%24%0
Marcílio Dias or draw70%63%+7
Marcílio Dias clean sheet33%––
Figueirense clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 8.9 8.9 5.1 1 11.2 13.2 7.0 2.6 2 8.0 8.7 4.8 3 3.6 4.0 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Marcílio Dias down, Figueirense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.10
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsFIG 0–1 MAR · MAR 1–0 FIG · FIG 1–0 MAR · MAR 2–1 FIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 30 Aug

MARCÍLIO DIAS

WWLWDD4–2 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

FIGUEIRENSE

DWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0