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Home › Football › Copa Santa Catarina › Hercílio Luz v Blumenau

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Hercílio Luz v Blumenau

Hercílio Luz
0–0Full time
Blumenau

Copa Santa Catarina · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:34
Hercílio Luz 0–0 Blumenau HERCÍLIO LUZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hercílio Luz win47%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.797
The market’s Brier score0.897

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hercílio Luz win at 47%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Hercílio Luz v Blumenau
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Hercílio Luz was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
  4. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Hercílio Luz win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  5. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Hercílio Luz win 39%)
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Hercílio Luz 0–0 Blumenau
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Hercílio Luz 0–0 Blumenau
  8. 47′We said Hercílio Luz at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–44–21
  9. 49′We said Hercílio Luz at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–45–20
  10. 60′We said Hercílio Luz at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–18
  11. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Hercílio Luz win: 47% at kick-off, 26% now
  12. 67′We said Hercílio Luz at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–15
  13. 73′Hercílio Luz score on 73′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
  14. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Hercílio Luz 1–0 Blumenau
  15. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Hercílio Luz win: 47% at kick-off, 88% now
  16. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Hercílio Luz win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 67%)
  17. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Hercílio Luz win: 47% at kick-off, 88% now
  18. 75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' Hercílio Luz
  19. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Hercílio Luz win: 47% at kick-off, 18% now
  20. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Hercílio Luz win 88%)
  21. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Hercílio Luz win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  22. 84′We said Hercílio Luz at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–5
  23. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Hercílio Luz win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  24. 90′We said Hercílio Luz at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  25. FTFULL TIME Hercílio Luz 0–0 Blumenau
  26. FTHercílio Luz 0–0 Blumenau · Hercílio Luz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hercílio Luz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hercílio Luz 47%, draw 28%, Blumenau 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Hercílio Luz v BlumenauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hercílio Luz win47%
Draw28%
Blumenau win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hercílio Luz

Blumenau

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

Last match: 18 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hercílio luz winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:37 · locked at kick-off
47% The market55%
Us47%
Market55%

We make Hercílio Luz a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hercílio Luz v Blumenau1.38 – 0.91
Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 29 AugW4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3
The market · Hercílio Luz win55% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 21:35
Our probability · Hercílio Luz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hercílio Luz win47%55%−8
Draw28%25%+3
Blumenau win24%20%+4
Over 2.5 goals40%51%−11
Both teams to score45%51%−6
Over 1.5 goals67%73%−6
Over 3.5 goals20%31%−11
Hercílio Luz or draw76%80%−4
Hercílio Luz clean sheet40%––
Blumenau clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%
0123450 10.6 8.8 4.2 1 13.6 13.1 5.8 2 9.7 8.8 4.0 3 4.4 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hercílio Luz down, Blumenau across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsBLU 0–2 HER · HER 0–1 BLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 29 Aug

HERCÍLIO LUZ

WWLWLW4–2 · 3–1 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

BLUMENAU

LLDLDW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0