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Hercílio Luz v Barra
Hercílio LuzBarraCopa Santa Catarina · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Hercílio Luz win at 42%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Hercílio Luz was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
- 1′KICK-OFF Hercílio Luz v Barra
- 28′Hercílio Luz score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Hercílio Luz 1–0 Barra
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Hercílio Luz win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
- 29′We published Hercílio Luz at 42%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
- 34′We published Hercílio Luz at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
- 45′Hercílio Luz find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′We published Hercílio Luz at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Hercílio Luz 2–0 Barra
- 45′HALF-TIME Hercílio Luz 2–0 Barra
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Hercílio Luz win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
- 46′SECOND HALF Hercílio Luz 2–0 Barra
- 80′We published Hercílio Luz at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Hercílio Luz 2–0 Barra
- FTHercílio Luz 2–0 Barra · Hercílio Luz win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassHercílio Luz are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Hercílio Luz 42%, draw 29%, Barra 28%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Hercílio Luz win42%Barra win28%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:00
RoundGroup stage · matchday 7
Match timeline
All events
Hercílio LuzMINBarraEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Hercílio Luz
Barra
Last match: 10 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina
Last match: 11 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Hercílio Luz a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hercílio Luz win | 42% | 48% | −6 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Barra win | 28% | 24% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 51% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 54% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 74% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 31% | −12 |
| Hercílio Luz or draw | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Hercílio Luz clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
| Barra clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 30 Aug
HERCÍLIO LUZ
BARRA