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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Copa Santa Catarina › Figueirense v Joinville

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Figueirense v Joinville

Figueirense
1–0Full time
Joinville

Copa Santa Catarina · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Figueirense 1–0 Joinville FIGUEIRENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Figueirense win57%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.283
The market’s Brier score0.378

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Figueirense win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Figueirense 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–25–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Figueirense v Joinville
  4. 29′A goal for Figueirense on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
  5. 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Figueirense 1–0 Joinville
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Figueirense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 30′We said Figueirense at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Figueirense 1–0 Joinville
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Figueirense 1–0 Joinville
  11. 58′We said Figueirense at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  12. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Figueirense win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
  13. 74′We said Figueirense at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  14. 84′We said Figueirense at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  15. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Figueirense win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  16. FTFULL TIME Figueirense 1–0 Joinville
  17. FTFigueirense 1–0 Joinville · Figueirense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Figueirense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Figueirense 57%, draw 25%, Joinville 18%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Figueirense v JoinvilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Figueirense win57%
Draw25%
Joinville win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Figueirense

Joinville

8Days since last match14

Last match: 16 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

Last match: 10 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · figueirense winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
57% The market50%
Us57%
Market50%

We make Figueirense a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Figueirense v Joinville1.66 – 0.83
Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 30 AugW4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2
The market · Figueirense win50% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:34
Our probability · Figueirense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Figueirense win57%50%+7
Draw25%28%−3
Joinville win18%23%−5
Over 2.5 goals45%43%+2
Both teams to score46%47%−1
Over 1.5 goals72%67%+5
Over 3.5 goals24%23%+1
Figueirense or draw82%77%+5
Figueirense clean sheet44%––
Joinville clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%
0123450 8.6 6.5 2.8 1 13.4 11.8 4.7 2 11.4 9.5 3.9 3 6.3 5.3 2.2 4 2.6 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Figueirense down, Joinville across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsJOI 0–3 FIG · FIG 1–0 JOI · JOI 2–3 FIG · FIG 2–1 JOI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 30 Aug

FIGUEIRENSE

DWWWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

JOINVILLE

LWLWWW2–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 3–0