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Figueirense v Hercílio Luz
Copa Santa Catarina · SAT 10 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Figueirense win at 44%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Figueirense 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
- 1′KICK-OFF Figueirense v Hercílio Luz
- 9′Little has changed for our model: Figueirense 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
- 45′HALF-TIME Figueirense 0–0 Hercílio Luz
- 46′SECOND HALF Figueirense 0–0 Hercílio Luz
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Figueirense 1–0 Hercílio Luz
- 70′PENALTY MISSED · 70' Figueirense
- FTFULL TIME Figueirense 1–0 Hercílio Luz
- FTFigueirense 1–0 Hercílio Luz · Figueirense win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 19:00
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Figueirense a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Figueirense win | 44% | 45% | 0 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 0 |
| Hercílio Luz win | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 44% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 24% | −4 |
| Figueirense or draw | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Figueirense clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Hercílio Luz clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2023Form · last six in Copa Santa Catarina
FIGUEIRENSE
HERCÍLIO LUZ
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marcílio Dias | 6 | +6 | 11 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 | Hercílio Luz | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Joinville | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 |  Santa Catarina | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 |  Barra | 4 | −1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Metropolitano | 4 | −5 | 3 |
| 8 |  Nação | 6 | −6 | 3 |
| 9 |  Blumenau | 5 | −3 | 2 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.