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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Copa Santa Catarina › Barra v Santa Catarina

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Barra v Santa Catarina

Barra
3–0Full time
Santa Catarina

Copa Santa Catarina · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30
Barra 3–0 Santa Catarina BARRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Barra win41%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.530
The market’s Brier score0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Barra win at 41%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Barra v Santa Catarina
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Barra was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
  4. 16′Barra find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–10
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Barra 1–0 Santa Catarina
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Barra win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 17′We published Barra at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–10
  8. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Barra win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  9. 22′A goal for Barra on 21′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–2
  10. 22′We published Barra at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–2
  11. 22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Barra 2–0 Santa Catarina
  12. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Barra win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
  13. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Barra win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Barra 2–0 Santa Catarina
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Barra 2–0 Santa Catarina
  16. 49′We published Barra at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  17. 61′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  18. 72′Barra score on 72′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Barra 3–0 Santa Catarina
  20. 73′We published Barra at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 74′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 88′A red card for Santa Catarina on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 88′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Santa Catarina
  24. FTFULL TIME Barra 3–0 Santa Catarina
  25. FTBarra 3–0 Santa Catarina · Barra win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barra 41%, draw 28%, Santa Catarina 31%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Barra v Santa CatarinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

Barra win41%
Draw28%
Santa Catarina win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barra

Santa Catarina

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

Last match: 17 Oct · Copa Santa Catarina

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barra winFirst published 17 Oct 05:16 · updated 23 Oct 04:37 · locked at kick-off
41% The market40%
Us41%
Market40%

We make Barra a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Barra v Santa Catarina1.29 – 1.09
Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 29 AugW0 D4 L2 · W2 D1 L3
The market · Barra win40% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 17 OCT 05:1623 OCT 22:51
Our probability · Barra win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Barra win41%40%+1
Draw28%28%0
Santa Catarina win31%32%−1
Over 2.5 goals43%49%−6
Both teams to score49%54%−5
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals22%29%−7
Barra or draw69%68%+1
Barra clean sheet34%––
Santa Catarina clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 9.7 9.7 5.5 2.0 1 11.5 13.4 7.1 2.6 2 7.7 8.4 4.6 3 3.3 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Barra down, Santa Catarina across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsSAN 0–1 BAR · BAR 1–1 SAN · BAR 2–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Santa Catarina this season · since 29 Aug

BARRA

DDDLDL1–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–2

SANTA CATARINA

WDWLLL1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–3