Barra v Metropolitano prediction · Copa Santa Catarina

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Barra 3–3 Metropolitano BARRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barra win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.906

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barra win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Barra v Metropolitano
4′Much as we predicted: Barra was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
7′Much as we predicted: Barra was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–20
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Barra 1–0 Metropolitano
21′A goal for Barra on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–6
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
24′A goal for Barra on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–5
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Barra 2–0 Metropolitano
39′35′ and it is 2–0: Barra have scored. 2–0 · 96–4–1
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
40′35′ and it is 2–0: Barra have scored. 2–0 · 96–3–1
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Barra 2–1 Metropolitano
45′HALF-TIME Barra 2–1 Metropolitano
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Barra win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
46′SECOND HALF Barra 2–1 Metropolitano
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Barra 2–2 Metropolitano
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Barra 2–3 Metropolitano
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Barra 3–3 Metropolitano
FTFULL TIME Barra 3–3 Metropolitano
FTBarra 3–3 Metropolitano · Barra win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Barra win55%

Draw25%

Metropolitano win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Barra

Metropolitano

15Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Barra	4	−1	3
7	Metropolitano	4	−5	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barra winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Barra a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barra win	55%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Metropolitano win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Barra or draw	80%	–	–
Barra clean sheet	41%	–	–
Metropolitano clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 8.1 6.5 3.1 1 12.4 11.9 5.2 2 10.7 9.6 4.3 3 5.9 5.3 2.4 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barra down, Metropolitano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 406,070 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 11 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Barra play in the Serie C, Metropolitano in the Catarinense - 2.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Barra are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in this competition in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Barra, 0.90 for Metropolitano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2023

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Copa Santa Catarina

BARRA

WLDDDL1–0 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2

METROPOLITANO

LLWL2–4 · 2–5 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Figueirense	5	+4	13
2	Joinville	6	+5	12
3	Marcílio Dias	6	+6	11
4	Hercílio Luz	5	+2	9
5	Santa Catarina	5	−2	7
6	Barra	4	−1	3
7	Metropolitano	4	−5	3
8	Nação	6	−6	3
9	Blumenau	5	−3	2