União São João v São José EC prediction · Copa Paulista

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

União São João 1–1 São José EC SÃO JOSÉ EC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said São José EC win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said São José EC win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF União São João v São José EC
2′Much as we predicted: São José EC was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 32–31–37
3′Much as we predicted: São José EC was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 32–31–37
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' São José EC
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' União São João 0–1 São José EC
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' União São João 0–1 São José EC
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' União São João
22′São José EC find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' União São João
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' São José EC win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' São José EC win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' São José EC win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
24′São José EC find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' São José EC win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' São José EC win: 37% at kick-off, 37% now
37′SUBSTITUTION · 32' União São João · On: Warlei · Off: Bruninho
41′We published São José EC at 37%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
42′We published São José EC at 37%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' União São João 1–1 São José EC
45′HALF-TIME União São João 1–1 São José EC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' São José EC win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
46′SECOND HALF União São João 1–1 São José EC
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' São José EC · On: Jeferson Lima · Off: Natan Masiero
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' São José EC · On: Lucas Andre · Off: Mauricio
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' São José EC · On: Lucas Andre · Off: Mauricio
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' São José EC · On: Lucas Andre · Off: Mauricio
FTFULL TIME União São João 1–1 São José EC
FTUnião São João 1–1 São José EC · São José EC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

União São João win32%

Draw31%

São José EC win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Line-ups

União São João

São José EC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

União São João

São José EC

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	São José EC	10	+8	21
2	União São João	12	+4	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

União São João

Formation not confirmed

1 Joao Souto

2 Leo Machado

3 Felipe Torres

4 Fernando Brito

5 Ruan Marcos

6 Tallys

8 Maycon Lucas

9 Bruninho

10 Bruno Menezes

11 Alex Oliveira

13 Leo Souza

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Leo Steffen

7 · Matheus Castilho

14 · E. Sabia

15 · Bruno Re

16 · Bruno Miguel

17 · Ronaldo

18 · Wagner Gomes

19 · Warlei

20 · Eliel

21 · V. J. Batista Santos

São José EC

Formation not confirmed

22 Joao Lucas

27 Natan Masiero

4 Joao Ramos

3 Wesley Rodrigues

28 Carlos Henrique

8 Mauricio

7 Thomaz

17 Fernando Neto

11 Jeffinho

34 Guilherme Santos

9 Neto Oliveira

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Rafael Puridade

32 · Guilherme

5 · Jeferson Lima

6 · Iury

14 · Gabriel Ramos

16 · Guilherme Martineli

18 · Tche Tche

19 · Joao Guilherme

20 · Lucas Andre

21 · Ygor

30 · Guilherme Matheus

33 · Micael

Our number · são josé ec winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

37% The market–

Us37%

We make São José EC a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
União São João win	32%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
São José EC win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
União São João or draw	63%	–	–
União São João clean sheet	35%	–	–
São José EC clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 13.6 13.5 7.4 2.6 1 12.3 13.9 7.2 2.5 2 6.2 6.5 3.5 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+União São João down, São José EC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 406,070 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 11 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

União São João play in the Paulista - A3, São José EC in the Paulista - A2.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: União São João are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in this competition in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.97 goals for União São João, 1.06 for São José EC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Copa Paulista

UNIÃO SÃO JOÃO

WLWDDW3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

SÃO JOSÉ EC

WDDWDW3–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	São José EC	10	+8	21
2	União São João	12	+4	19
3	Primavera SP	10	+14	18
4	Grêmio Prudente	12	+2	18
5	Linense	8	+7	15
6	EC São Bernardo	8	+4	12
7	Noroeste	10	−1	12
8	Juventus	8	+5	11
9	Bandeirante SP	8	−1	11
10	Comercial	10	−2	11
11	Santo André	6	−1	10
12	Paulista	8	−6	10
13	XV de Piracicaba	6	−2	6
14	Marília	6	−5	4
15	Oeste	6	−7	4
16	São Caetano	8	−19	2