São José EC v União São João

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said São José EC win at 49%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: São José EC 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–30–22
3. 1′KICK-OFF São José EC v União São João
4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' São José EC win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
5. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' União São João
6. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was São José EC win 38%)
7. 42′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–43–19
8. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' São José EC
9. 45′SECOND HALF São José EC 0–0 União São João
10. 49′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–18
11. 49′HALF-TIME São José EC 0–0 União São João
12. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' São José EC
13. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' São José EC · On: Micael · Off: Guilherme Santos
14. 59′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' São José EC win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
16. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' União São João · On: Wagner Gomes · Off: Rafael Costa
17. 68′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–64–13
18. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' São José EC · On: Tche Tche · Off: Mauricio
19. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' São José EC · On: Jeferson Lima · Off: Fernando Neto
20. 73′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
21. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' São José EC win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
22. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' União São João · On: B. Menezes · Off: Leo Souza
23. 79′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–8
24. 83′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
25. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' São José EC win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
26. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' União São João · On: Warlei · Off: Maikinho
27. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' São José EC
28. 91′We said São José EC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–94–2
29. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' União São João
30. 95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' União São João
31. 96′União São João are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 1–98–1
32. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
33. 120′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Alex Oliveira · União São João
34. FTFULL TIME São José EC 0–0 União São João
35. FTSão José EC 0–0 União São João after 90 minutes, as graded · São José EC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.