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Palmeiras U20 v Santos U20

Palmeiras U20
3–3After penalties
Santos U20

Copa do Brasil U20 · SAT 10 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 10 Oct 02:30
Palmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20 PALMEIRAS U20 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Palmeiras U20 win50%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.881
The market’s Brier score0.984

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 3–3, the score after 90 minutes. Palmeiras U20 won 4–2 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Palmeiras U20 win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Palmeiras U20 was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Palmeiras U20 v Santos U20
  4. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Palmeiras U20 0–1 Santos U20
  5. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Palmeiras U20 0–2 Santos U20
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Palmeiras U20 0–2 Santos U20
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Palmeiras U20 0–2 Santos U20
  8. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Palmeiras U20 1–2 Santos U20
  9. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Palmeiras U20 2–2 Santos U20
  10. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Palmeiras U20 3–2 Santos U20
  11. 90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Palmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20
  12. 90′⚽ GOAL · 121' Palmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20
  13. 90′⚽ GOAL · 122' Palmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20
  14. 90′PENALTY MISSED · 122' Santos U20
  15. 90′PENALTY MISSED · 123' Palmeiras U20
  16. 90′⚽ GOAL · 123' Palmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20
  17. 90′⚽ GOAL · 124' Palmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20
  18. 90′PENALTY MISSED · 124' Santos U20
  19. FTFULL TIME Palmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20
  20. FTPalmeiras U20 3–3 Santos U20 after 90 minutes, as graded · Palmeiras U20 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Palmeiras U20 win50%
Draw25%
Santos U20 win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 00:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · palmeiras u20 winPublished 10 Oct 00:00
50% The market59%
Us50%
Market59%

We make Palmeiras U20 a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:219 OCT 21:13
Our probability · palmeiras u20 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Palmeiras U20 win50%59%−9
Draw25%23%+2
Santos U20 win25%18%+7
Over 2.5 goals51%61%−11
Both teams to score52%58%−7
Over 1.5 goals74%80%−6
Over 3.5 goals29%41%−12
Palmeiras U20 or draw75%82%−7
Palmeiras U20 clean sheet35%––
Santos U20 clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 7.5 7.2 3.8 1 10.9 11.3 5.9 2.2 2 8.7 9.0 4.8 3 4.9 5.1 2.8 4 2.1 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Palmeiras U20 down, Santos U20 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsPAL 2–2 SAN · SAN 2–2 PAL

Form · last six in Copa do Brasil U20

PALMEIRAS U20

WWWWDW3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

SANTOS U20

WWWWWW1–0 · 7–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Santa Cruz AC U204+57
2São Paulo U202+146
3Paysandu PA U202+116
4Nautico U202+66
5São Raimundo RR U202+56
6Atlético Mineiro U202+56
7Criciuma U202+56
8Botafogo U202+56
9Goiás U202+36
10Ceará U202+26
11Vasco da Gama U202+114
12Flamengo U202+64
13CSA U202+44
14Amazonas U202+34
15Tuna Luso PA U202+34
16Operário PR U202+24
17América RN U202+14
18União TO U202+14
19Bahia U202+153
20Palmeiras U201+103
21Grêmio U202+33
22Athletico PR U202+13
23Cruzeiro U202+13
24Piauí U20203
25Athletic Club MG U20203
26Ferroviario U20203
27Barra SC U202−23
28Sergipe U202−33
29Independente-AP U202−43
30Chapecoense U20101
31QFC U20101
32Cuiabá U20101
33Santos U20101
34Monte Roraima U20101
35SE União Cacoalense U20101
36Nacional AM U202−11
37Atlético Piauiense U201−10
38Fortaleza U201−10
39Miranda do Norte U201−10
40Real Brasília U201−10
41Esporte de Patos U201−10
42Falcon U201−10
43Internacional U201−10
44Trindade U201−20
45America PE U201−20
46Cascavel U201−20
47Guanabara City U201−20
48Sao Luiz U201−20
49Luverdense U201−30
50Batalhão FC U201−30
51CSE U201−30
52Gênus U201−40
53Confiança PB U201−40
54Estrela De Marco U201−40
55Sobradinho U201−40
56Galvez U201−50
57Macapá U201−50
58Real SC U201−50
59Forte U201−60
60Naviraiense U201−100
61Rio Branco ES U201−110
62Gremio Santo Antonio U201−120
63Atlético Alagoinhas U201−160

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.