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Serrano RJ v Nova Cidade
Serrano RJ
Nova CidadeCarioca - 2 · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Serrano RJ win at 50%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Serrano RJ was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Serrano RJ v Nova Cidade
- 16′Serrano RJ score on 15′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–7
- 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Serrano RJ win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
- 17′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–7
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–6
- 43′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Serrano RJ win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
- 46′SECOND HALF Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
- 65′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 76′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Serrano RJ win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 85′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- FTFULL TIME Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
- FTSerrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade · Serrano RJ win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Serrano RJ are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Serrano RJ 50%, draw 26%, Nova Cidade 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Serrano RJ win50%
Nova Cidade win24%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 9
Match timeline
All events
Serrano RJMIN
Nova CidadeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Serrano RJ
Nova Cidade
Last match: 20 Oct · Carioca - 2
Last match: 21 Oct · Carioca - 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Serrano RJ a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serrano RJ win | 50% | – | – |
| Draw | 26% | – | – |
| Nova Cidade win | 24% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 42% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – | – |
| Serrano RJ or draw | 76% | – | – |
| Serrano RJ clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| Nova Cidade clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 Sept
SERRANO RJ
NOVA CIDADE
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 8 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Goytacaz | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Serrano RJ | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Artsul | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Macaé | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Campo Grande | 8 | −5 | 9 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 8 | −2 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 8 | −3 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 8 | −7 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 8 | −13 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Niteroiense
Duque de Caxias
Goytacaz
Petrópolis
Artsul
Macaé
Campo Grande
São Cristóvão RJ
Audax Rio
Carapebus