Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Carioca - 2 › Serrano RJ v Nova Cidade

Back
Brazil flag

Serrano RJ v Nova Cidade

Serrano RJ
1–0Full time
Nova Cidade

Carioca - 2 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade SERRANO RJ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Serrano RJ win50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.371

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Serrano RJ win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Serrano RJ was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Serrano RJ v Nova Cidade
  4. 16′Serrano RJ score on 15′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–7
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Serrano RJ win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 17′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–7
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–6
  9. 43′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  10. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Serrano RJ win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
  13. 65′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 76′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  15. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Serrano RJ win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  16. 85′We published Serrano RJ at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  17. FTFULL TIME Serrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade
  18. FTSerrano RJ 1–0 Nova Cidade · Serrano RJ win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Serrano RJ are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Serrano RJ 50%, draw 26%, Nova Cidade 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Serrano RJ v Nova CidadeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Serrano RJ win50%
Draw26%
Nova Cidade win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Serrano RJ

Nova Cidade

4Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · Carioca - 2

Last match: 21 Oct · Carioca - 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Serrano RJ8+415
10Nova Cidade8−36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · serrano rj winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
50% The market–
Us50%

We make Serrano RJ a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Serrano RJ v Nova Cidade1.43 – 0.87
Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 15 v 64 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Serrano RJ win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Serrano RJ win50%––
Draw26%––
Nova Cidade win24%––
Over 2.5 goals40%––
Both teams to score42%––
Over 1.5 goals65%––
Over 3.5 goals20%––
Serrano RJ or draw76%––
Serrano RJ clean sheet43%––
Nova Cidade clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%
0123450 10.0 9.6 3.9 1 14.9 11.4 5.3 2 10.0 8.4 3.6 3 4.9 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Serrano RJ down, Nova Cidade across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.40
Over 2.54 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsSER 0–1 NOV · NOV 3–2 SER · SER 3–0 NOV · NOV 2–3 SER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 Sept

SERRANO RJ

WDWWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

NOVA CIDADE

LLDWDL0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Niteroiense8+719
2Duque de Caxias8+918
3Goytacaz8+517
4Serrano RJ8+415
5Petrópolis8+414
6Artsul8+110
7Macaé8010
8Campo Grande8−59
9São Cristóvão RJ8−27
10Nova Cidade8−36
11Audax Rio8−74
12Carapebus8−131

The competition's standings before kick-off.