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Serrano RJ v Macaé

Serrano RJ

1–0Full time

Macaé

Carioca - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Serrano RJ 1–0 Macaé SERRANO RJ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Serrano RJ win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.439

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Serrano RJ win46%

Draw24%

Macaé win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · serrano rj winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Serrano RJ a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Serrano RJ win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Macaé win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Serrano RJ or draw	70%	–	–
Serrano RJ clean sheet	34%	–	–
Macaé clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.7 9.5 4.8 1 11.9 11.1 6.4 2.5 2 7.9 8.2 4.5 3 4.0 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Serrano RJ down, Macaé across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 363 Carioca - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.3% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Serrano RJ at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Macaé away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Serrano RJ, 1.11 for Macaé. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAC 0–1 SER

Form · last six in Carioca - 2

SERRANO RJ

DLDWDW0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–3

MACAÉ

WLWLDW3–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	5	+6	13
2	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
3	Goytacaz	5	+1	10
4	Duque de Caxias	5	+4	9
5	Artsul	6	+2	9
6	Campo Grande	5	+1	8
7	Serrano RJ	5	0	8
8	Macaé	5	+1	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	5	−1	5
10	Nova Cidade	5	−5	2
11	Carapebus	5	−6	1
12	Audax Rio	5	−6	1