Serrano RJ v Carapebus prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Serrano RJ 3–0 Carapebus SERRANO RJ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Serrano RJ win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Serrano RJ win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Serrano RJ was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Serrano RJ v Carapebus
14′Serrano RJ score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–5
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Serrano RJ 1–0 Carapebus
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Serrano RJ win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
15′We published Serrano RJ at 60%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–5
17′Serrano RJ find the net on 17′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Serrano RJ 2–0 Carapebus
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Serrano RJ win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
18′We published Serrano RJ at 60%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Serrano RJ 2–0 Carapebus
46′SECOND HALF Serrano RJ 2–0 Carapebus
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
77′We published Serrano RJ at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Serrano RJ win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
92′A goal for Serrano RJ on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Serrano RJ 3–0 Carapebus
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Serrano RJ 3–0 Carapebus
FTSerrano RJ 3–0 Carapebus · Serrano RJ win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Serrano RJ are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Serrano RJ 60%, draw 23%, Carapebus 18%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Serrano RJ v CarapebusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Serrano RJ win60%

Draw23%

Carapebus win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Serrano RJ

Carapebus

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Serrano RJ	6	+1	11
12	Carapebus	6	−8	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · serrano rj winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Serrano RJ a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Serrano RJ v Carapebus~~1.71 – 0.74

~~Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 1~~3 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Serrano RJ win	60%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Carapebus win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Serrano RJ or draw	82%	–	–
Serrano RJ clean sheet	48%	–	–
Carapebus clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 8.8 7.4 2.6 1 15.3 10.1 4.1 2 12.0 8.5 3.2 3 6.9 4.8 4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Serrano RJ down, Carapebus across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 369 Carioca - 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Serrano RJ at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Carapebus away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Serrano RJ, 0.74 for Carapebus. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAR 0–0 SER · SER 2–0 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

SERRANO RJ

LDWDWW0–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 1–0

CARAPEBUS

LLDLLL0–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	6	+8	16
2	Duque de Caxias	6	+5	12
3	Serrano RJ	6	+1	11
4	Goytacaz	6	+1	11
5	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
6	Artsul	7	+2	10
7	Campo Grande	6	−2	8
8	Macaé	6	0	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	6	−1	6
10	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6
11	Audax Rio	6	−7	1
12	Carapebus	6	−8	1