Petrópolis v Carapebus

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Petrópolis win at 62%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Petrópolis was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
3. 1′KICK-OFF Petrópolis v Carapebus
4. 3′Carapebus find the net on 2′. 0–1. 0–1 · 34–27–39
5. 3′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–27–39
6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Petrópolis 0–1 Carapebus
7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 34% now
8. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Carapebus win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Petrópolis win 61%)
9. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
10. 9′A goal for Petrópolis on 8′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 60–25–15
11. 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Petrópolis 1–1 Carapebus
12. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 60% now
13. 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Petrópolis win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Carapebus win 40%)
14. 16′Petrópolis score on 16′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–12–3
15. 16′We published Petrópolis at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–12–3
16. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Petrópolis 2–1 Carapebus
17. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
18. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 85–12–3
19. 34′Carapebus find the net on 33′. 2–2. 2–2 · 51–34–15
20. 34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Petrópolis 2–2 Carapebus
21. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 51% now
22. 35′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 51–35–15
23. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 51% now
24. 36′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 2–2 · 50–35–15
25. 38′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 2–2 · 49–36–14
26. 45′HALF-TIME Petrópolis 2–2 Carapebus
27. 46′SECOND HALF Petrópolis 2–2 Carapebus
28. 48′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 44–42–14
29. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
30. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Petrópolis win 43%)
31. 56′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–48–13
32. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
33. 69′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–62–10
34. 75′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 22–70–8
35. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
36. 78′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–75–7
37. 82′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–82–5
38. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
39. 85′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–87–4
40. 92′We said Petrópolis at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–95–1
41. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Petrópolis win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
42. FTFULL TIME Petrópolis 2–2 Carapebus
43. FTPetrópolis 2–2 Carapebus · Petrópolis win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.