Nova Cidade v Petrópolis prediction · Carioca

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nova CidadeDrawPetrópolis

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Petrópolis 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petrópolis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nova Cidade 31%, draw 29%, Petrópolis 40%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Nova Cidade v PetrópolisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Nova Cidade win31%

Draw29%

Petrópolis win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nova Cidade

Petrópolis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Petrópolis	9	+4	15
10	Nova Cidade	9	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petrópolis winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Petrópolis a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nova Cidade v Petrópolis~~0.95 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 15~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nova Cidade win	31%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Petrópolis win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Nova Cidade or draw	60%	–	–
Nova Cidade clean sheet	33%	–	–
Petrópolis clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.6%

0123450 12.3 14.6 7.9 3.1 1 12.5 12.3 7.2 2.8 2 5.7 6.1 3.5 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nova Cidade down, Petrópolis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 386 Carioca - 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nova Cidade at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Petrópolis away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Nova Cidade, 1.14 for Petrópolis. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NOV 0–1 PET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 26 Sept

NOVA CIDADE

LDWDLL1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

PETRÓPOLIS

WDDWDD3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Duque de Caxias	9	+9	19
2	Niteroiense	9	+5	19
3	Serrano RJ	9	+5	18
4	Goytacaz	9	+5	18
5	Petrópolis	9	+4	15
6	Artsul	9	+2	13
7	Campo Grande	9	−3	12
8	Macaé	9	0	11
9	São Cristóvão RJ	9	−3	7
10	Nova Cidade	9	−4	6
11	Audax Rio	9	−7	5
12	Carapebus	9	−13	2