Nova Cidade v Macaé prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30

Nova Cidade 1–2 Macaé NOVA CIDADE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nova Cidade win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.661

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nova Cidade win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nova Cidade 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
1′A goal for Macaé on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–60
1′KICK-OFF Nova Cidade v Macaé
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Nova Cidade 0–1 Macaé
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Nova Cidade win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Macaé win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Nova Cidade win 40%)
2′We said Nova Cidade at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–60
17′Nova Cidade score on 17′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–30–32
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Nova Cidade 1–1 Macaé
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Nova Cidade win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Nova Cidade win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Macaé win 62%)
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Nova Cidade win 35%)
42′Macaé find the net on 42′. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–23–68
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Nova Cidade 1–2 Macaé
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Nova Cidade win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Macaé win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
43′We said Nova Cidade at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
43′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–23–68
45′HALF-TIME Nova Cidade 1–2 Macaé
46′SECOND HALF Nova Cidade 1–2 Macaé
63′We said Nova Cidade at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–76
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Nova Cidade win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Nova Cidade 1–2 Macaé
FTNova Cidade 1–2 Macaé · Nova Cidade win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nova Cidade are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nova Cidade 40%, draw 26%, Macaé 34%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Nova Cidade v MacaéBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Nova Cidade win40%

Draw26%

Macaé win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nova Cidade

Macaé

5Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Carioca - 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Macaé	7	−1	7
9	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nova cidade winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 01:08 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Nova Cidade a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nova Cidade v Macaé~~1.26 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nova Cidade win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nova Cidade win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Macaé win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Nova Cidade or draw	66%	–	–
Nova Cidade clean sheet	34%	–	–
Macaé clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 9.2 11.5 5.9 2.3 1 12.6 11.7 6.9 2.7 2 7.2 7.6 4.2 3 3.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nova Cidade down, Macaé across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 375 Carioca - 2 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.6% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nova Cidade at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Macaé away: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Nova Cidade, 1.13 for Macaé. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAC 0–1 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 12 Sept

NOVA CIDADE

DLLDWD2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

MACAÉ

WLDWLL2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	7	+6	16
2	Duque de Caxias	7	+8	15
3	Serrano RJ	8	+4	15
4	Petrópolis	8	+4	14
5	Goytacaz	7	+3	14
6	Artsul	7	+2	10
7	Campo Grande	7	−5	8
8	Macaé	7	−1	7
9	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6
10	São Cristóvão RJ	7	−2	6
11	Audax Rio	7	−6	4
12	Carapebus	7	−11	1