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Home › Football › Carioca - 2 › Niteroiense v Audax Rio

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Niteroiense v Audax Rio

Niteroiense
2–1Full time
Audax Rio

Carioca - 2 · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30
Niteroiense 2–1 Audax Rio NITEROIENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Niteroiense win52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.341

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Niteroiense win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Niteroiense was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Niteroiense v Audax Rio
  4. 18′Niteroiense find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Niteroiense 1–0 Audax Rio
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Niteroiense win: 52% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 19′We published Niteroiense at 52%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  9. 33′We published Niteroiense at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Niteroiense 1–0 Audax Rio
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Niteroiense 1–0 Audax Rio
  12. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Niteroiense win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  13. 62′We published Niteroiense at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 74′A goal for Niteroiense on 74′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Niteroiense 2–0 Audax Rio
  16. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Niteroiense win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
  17. 75′We published Niteroiense at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  18. 79′We published Niteroiense at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 91′Audax Rio score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  20. 91′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  21. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Niteroiense 2–1 Audax Rio
  22. FTFULL TIME Niteroiense 2–1 Audax Rio
  23. FTNiteroiense 2–1 Audax Rio · Niteroiense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niteroiense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Niteroiense 52%, draw 25%, Audax Rio 22%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Niteroiense v Audax RioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Niteroiense win52%
Draw25%
Audax Rio win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Niteroiense

Audax Rio

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Carioca - 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Niteroiense7+616
11Audax Rio7−64

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niteroiense winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
52% The market–
Us52%

We make Niteroiense a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Niteroiense v Audax Rio1.46 – 0.83
Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 12 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 16 v 41 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 18:36
Our probability · Niteroiense win

Published at 56%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Niteroiense win52%––
Draw25%––
Audax Rio win22%––
Over 2.5 goals40%––
Both teams to score41%––
Over 1.5 goals65%––
Over 3.5 goals20%––
Niteroiense or draw78%––
Niteroiense clean sheet44%––
Audax Rio clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%
0123450 10.1 9.4 3.6 1 15.6 11.1 4.9 2 10.6 8.4 3.5 3 5.2 4.1 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Niteroiense down, Audax Rio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 12 Sept

NITEROIENSE

DWWWWL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

AUDAX RIO

LLLDLW0–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Niteroiense7+616
2Duque de Caxias7+815
3Serrano RJ8+415
4Petrópolis8+414
5Goytacaz7+314
6Artsul7+210
7Campo Grande7−58
8Macaé7−17
9Nova Cidade7−26
10São Cristóvão RJ7−26
11Audax Rio7−64
12Carapebus7−111

The competition's standings before kick-off.