Macaé v Petrópolis prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:01

Macaé 0–1 Petrópolis PETRÓPOLIS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Petrópolis win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Petrópolis win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Petrópolis 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Macaé v Petrópolis
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Petrópolis win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Macaé 0–0 Petrópolis
46′Macaé are down to ten from 42′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 26–43–30
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Petrópolis win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
46′🟥 RED CARD · 42' Macaé
46′SECOND HALF Macaé 0–0 Petrópolis
52′We said Petrópolis at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 25–47–28
61′We said Petrópolis at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
71′We said Petrópolis at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 16–65–18
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Petrópolis win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
77′We said Petrópolis at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Petrópolis win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′We said Petrópolis at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–82–9
90′We said Petrópolis at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
93′A goal for Petrópolis on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Macaé 0–1 Petrópolis
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Petrópolis win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Petrópolis win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
94′We said Petrópolis at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–1 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Macaé 0–1 Petrópolis
FTMacaé 0–1 Petrópolis · Petrópolis win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Petrópolis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Macaé 34%, draw 27%, Petrópolis 40%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Macaé v PetrópolisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Macaé win34%

Draw27%

Petrópolis win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Macaé

Petrópolis

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Carioca - 2

Last match: 9 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
8	Macaé	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · petrópolis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Petrópolis a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Macaé v Petrópolis~~1.08 – 1.22

~~Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Macaé win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Petrópolis win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Macaé or draw	60%	–	–
Macaé clean sheet	31%	–	–
Petrópolis clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.2 13.0 7.3 3.1 1 11.9 11.9 7.4 3.1 2 6.0 6.7 4.0 3 2.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Macaé down, Petrópolis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 369 Carioca - 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

Macaé at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Petrópolis away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Macaé, 1.22 for Petrópolis. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

MACAÉ

LWLDWL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–3 · 0–1

PETRÓPOLIS

DDWWDD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	6	+8	16
2	Duque de Caxias	6	+5	12
3	Serrano RJ	6	+1	11
4	Goytacaz	6	+1	11
5	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
6	Artsul	7	+2	10
7	Campo Grande	6	−2	8
8	Macaé	6	0	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	6	−1	6
10	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6
11	Audax Rio	6	−7	1
12	Carapebus	6	−8	1