Macaé v Duque de Caxias prediction · Carioca

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MacaéDrawDuque de Caxias

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Duque de Caxias 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Duque de Caxias are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Macaé 29%, draw 26%, Duque de Caxias 46%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Macaé v Duque de CaxiasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Macaé win29%

Draw26%

Duque de Caxias win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Macaé

Duque de Caxias

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Carioca - 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Duque de Caxias	8	+9	18
7	Macaé	8	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · duque de caxias winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Duque de Caxias a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Macaé v Duque de Caxias~~1.02 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Macaé win	29%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Duque de Caxias win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Macaé or draw	54%	–	–
Macaé clean sheet	27%	–	–
Duque de Caxias clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.2 13.2 8.5 4.0 1 10.2 11.6 8.1 3.8 2 4.8 6.2 4.1 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Macaé down, Duque de Caxias across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 380 Carioca - 2 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.4% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Macaé at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Duque de Caxias away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Macaé, 1.39 for Duque de Caxias. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAC 3–0 DUQ · MAC 2–0 DUQ · DUQ 2–0 MAC · DUQ 0–0 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 Sept

MACAÉ

LDWLLW1–2 · 0–0 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

DUQUE DE CAXIAS

WLLWWW1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	8	+7	19
2	Duque de Caxias	8	+9	18
3	Goytacaz	8	+5	17
4	Serrano RJ	8	+4	15
5	Petrópolis	8	+4	14
6	Artsul	8	+1	10
7	Macaé	8	0	10
8	Campo Grande	8	−5	9
9	São Cristóvão RJ	8	−2	7
10	Nova Cidade	8	−3	6
11	Audax Rio	8	−7	4
12	Carapebus	8	−13	1