Goytacaz v Niteroiense prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Goytacaz 2–0 Niteroiense NITEROIENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Niteroiense win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niteroiense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Goytacaz 31%, draw 27%, Niteroiense 42%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Goytacaz v NiteroienseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Goytacaz win31%

Draw27%

Niteroiense win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Goytacaz

Niteroiense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niteroiense winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Niteroiense a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Goytacaz v Niteroiense~~1.01 – 1.26

~~Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 16~~4 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Goytacaz win	31%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Niteroiense win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Goytacaz or draw	58%	–	–
Goytacaz clean sheet	30%	–	–
Niteroiense clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.4 13.7 8.0 3.5 1 11.4 11.8 7.6 3.3 2 5.4 6.3 3.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Goytacaz down, Niteroiense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 369 Carioca - 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

Goytacaz at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Niteroiense away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Goytacaz, 1.26 for Niteroiense. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

GOYTACAZ

WDLWWD1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

NITEROIENSE

WDWWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	6	+8	16
2	Duque de Caxias	6	+5	12
3	Serrano RJ	6	+1	11
4	Goytacaz	6	+1	11
5	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
6	Artsul	7	+2	10
7	Campo Grande	6	−2	8
8	Macaé	6	0	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	6	−1	6
10	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6
11	Audax Rio	6	−7	1
12	Carapebus	6	−8	1