Goytacaz v Campo Grande prediction · Carioca

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GoytacazDrawCampo Grande

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Goytacaz 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Goytacaz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Goytacaz 47%, draw 29%, Campo Grande 24%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Goytacaz v Campo GrandeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Goytacaz win47%

Draw29%

Campo Grande win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Goytacaz

Campo Grande

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Carioca - 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Goytacaz	9	+5	18
7	Campo Grande	9	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · goytacaz winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Goytacaz a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Goytacaz v Campo Grande~~1.22 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~4 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Goytacaz win	47%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Campo Grande win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Goytacaz or draw	76%	–	–
Goytacaz clean sheet	47%	–	–
Campo Grande clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 13.9 11.2 4.1 1 17.2 11.7 4.7 2 10.0 7.3 2.8 3 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Goytacaz down, Campo Grande across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 386 Carioca - 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Goytacaz at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Campo Grande away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Goytacaz, 0.76 for Campo Grande. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GOY 1–1 CAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 26 Sept

GOYTACAZ

WWDWWD2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

CAMPO GRANDE

DDLLDW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Duque de Caxias	9	+9	19
2	Niteroiense	9	+5	19
3	Serrano RJ	9	+5	18
4	Goytacaz	9	+5	18
5	Petrópolis	9	+4	15
6	Artsul	9	+2	13
7	Campo Grande	9	−3	12
8	Macaé	9	0	11
9	São Cristóvão RJ	9	−3	7
10	Nova Cidade	9	−4	6
11	Audax Rio	9	−7	5
12	Carapebus	9	−13	2