Duque de Caxias v Serrano RJ prediction · Carioca

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Duque de CaxiasDrawSerrano RJ

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Duque de Caxias 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Duque de Caxias are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Duque de Caxias 41%, draw 29%, Serrano RJ 30%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Duque de Caxias v Serrano RJBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Duque de Caxias win41%

Draw29%

Serrano RJ win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Duque de Caxias

Serrano RJ

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Carioca - 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · duque de caxias winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Duque de Caxias a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Duque de Caxias v Serrano RJ~~1.14 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 18~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Duque de Caxias win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Serrano RJ win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Duque de Caxias or draw	70%	–	–
Duque de Caxias clean sheet	41%	–	–
Serrano RJ clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 12.8 12.3 5.4 1 15.2 12.3 5.9 2 8.3 7.3 3.3 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Duque de Caxias down, Serrano RJ across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 386 Carioca - 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Duque de Caxias at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Serrano RJ away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Duque de Caxias, 0.91 for Serrano RJ. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SER 2–1 DUQ · DUQ 1–0 SER · DUQ 1–0 SER · SER 0–0 DUQ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 26 Sept

DUQUE DE CAXIAS

LLWWWD0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

SERRANO RJ

DWWWDW1–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Duque de Caxias	9	+9	19
2	Niteroiense	9	+5	19
3	Serrano RJ	9	+5	18
4	Goytacaz	9	+5	18
5	Petrópolis	9	+4	15
6	Artsul	9	+2	13
7	Campo Grande	9	−3	12
8	Macaé	9	0	11
9	São Cristóvão RJ	9	−3	7
10	Nova Cidade	9	−4	6
11	Audax Rio	9	−7	5
12	Carapebus	9	−13	2