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Duque de Caxias v Audax Rio

Duque de Caxias

1–0Full time

Audax Rio

Carioca - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Duque de Caxias 1–0 Audax Rio DUQUE DE CAXIAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Duque de Caxias win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Duque de Caxias win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Duque de Caxias was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–21
9′Much as we predicted: Duque de Caxias was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–21
30′A goal for Duque de Caxias on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–5
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Duque de Caxias win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
45′HALF-TIME Duque de Caxias 1–0 Audax Rio
45′⚽ GOAL · 26' Duque de Caxias 1–0 Audax Rio
46′SECOND HALF Duque de Caxias 1–0 Audax Rio
49′⚽ GOAL · 26' Duque de Caxias 1–0 Audax Rio
FTFULL TIME Duque de Caxias 1–0 Audax Rio
FTDuque de Caxias 1–0 Audax Rio · Duque de Caxias win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Duque de Caxias win52%

Draw26%

Audax Rio win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · duque de caxias winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Duque de Caxias a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Duque de Caxias win	52%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Audax Rio win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Duque de Caxias or draw	77%	–	–
Duque de Caxias clean sheet	45%	–	–
Audax Rio clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 10.7 9.6 3.6 1 15.9 11.2 4.8 2 10.6 8.2 3.4 3 5.1 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Duque de Caxias down, Audax Rio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 363 Carioca - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.3% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Duque de Caxias at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Audax Rio away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Duque de Caxias, 0.81 for Audax Rio. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2

DUQUE DE CAXIAS

LWWWLL0–2 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

AUDAX RIO

LLLLD0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	5	+6	13
2	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
3	Goytacaz	5	+1	10
4	Duque de Caxias	5	+4	9
5	Artsul	6	+2	9
6	Campo Grande	5	+1	8
7	Serrano RJ	5	0	8
8	Macaé	5	+1	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	5	−1	5
10	Nova Cidade	5	−5	2
11	Carapebus	5	−6	1
12	Audax Rio	5	−6	1