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Duque de Caxias v Artsul
Duque de CaxiasArtsulCarioca - 2 · WED 21 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Duque de Caxias win at 47%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Duque de Caxias was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
- 1′KICK-OFF Duque de Caxias v Artsul
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Duque de Caxias win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
- 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Duque de Caxias win 38%)
- 44′We said Duque de Caxias at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–42–22
- 45′HALF-TIME Duque de Caxias 0–0 Artsul
- 46′SECOND HALF Duque de Caxias 0–0 Artsul
- 47′We said Duque de Caxias at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
- 53′A goal for Duque de Caxias on 53′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–4
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Duque de Caxias 1–0 Artsul
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Duque de Caxias win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Duque de Caxias win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 48%)
- 54′We published Duque de Caxias at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 54′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 58′Artsul score on 57′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–52–19
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Duque de Caxias 1–1 Artsul
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Duque de Caxias win: 47% at kick-off, 29% now
- 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Duque de Caxias win 81%)
- 59′We said Duque de Caxias at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–19
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Duque de Caxias win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
- 66′We said Duque de Caxias at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
- 73′We said Duque de Caxias at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
- 74′Duque de Caxias find the net on 73′. 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
- 74′We published Duque de Caxias at 47%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
- 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Duque de Caxias 2–1 Artsul
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Duque de Caxias win: 47% at kick-off, 88% now
- 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Duque de Caxias win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 68%)
- 75′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 88–11–1
- 77′We published Duque de Caxias at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
- 85′We published Duque de Caxias at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Duque de Caxias win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
- FTFULL TIME Duque de Caxias 2–1 Artsul
- FTDuque de Caxias 2–1 Artsul · Duque de Caxias win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Duque de Caxias are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Duque de Caxias 47%, draw 26%, Artsul 27%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Duque de Caxias win47%Artsul win27%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 8
Match timeline
All events
Duque de CaxiasMINArtsulEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Duque de Caxias
Artsul
Last match: 17 Oct · Carioca - 2
Last match: 16 Oct · Carioca - 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Duque de Caxias a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 47% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duque de Caxias win | 47% | – | – |
| Draw | 26% | – | – |
| Artsul win | 27% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 42% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – | – |
| Duque de Caxias or draw | 73% | – | – |
| Duque de Caxias clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| Artsul clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 11 Sept
DUQUE DE CAXIAS
ARTSUL
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Niteroiense | 7 | +6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 |  Serrano RJ | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Petrópolis | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Goytacaz | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 |  Campo Grande | 7 | −5 | 8 |
| 8 |  Macaé | 7 | −1 | 7 |
| 9 |  Nova Cidade | 7 | −2 | 6 |
| 10 |  São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | −2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Audax Rio | 7 | −6 | 4 |
| 12 |  Carapebus | 7 | −11 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.