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Carapebus v Niteroiense

Carapebus

1–3Full time

Niteroiense

Carioca - 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:00

Carapebus 1–3 Niteroiense NITEROIENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Niteroiense win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.283

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Niteroiense win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Niteroiense 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 18–25–57
5′Niteroiense find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–82
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
26′We said Niteroiense at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 4–14–82
27′We said Niteroiense at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 4–14–82
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Carapebus 0–2 Niteroiense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Niteroiense win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
45′HALF-TIME Carapebus 0–2 Niteroiense
46′SECOND HALF Carapebus 0–2 Niteroiense
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Carapebus 0–3 Niteroiense
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Carapebus 1–3 Niteroiense
FTCarapebus 1–3 Niteroiense · Niteroiense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Carapebus win20%

Draw23%

Niteroiense win57%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niteroiense winPublished 10 Oct 22:32

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Niteroiense a 57% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carapebus win	20%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Niteroiense win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Carapebus or draw	43%	–	–
Carapebus clean sheet	21%	–	–
Niteroiense clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%

0123450 8.9 14.8 11.1 6.2 2.8 1 8.2 10.4 8.4 4.6 2.0 2 3.1 4.5 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carapebus down, Niteroiense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 363 Carioca - 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.3% of games this season, across 31 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Carapebus at home: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Niteroiense away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Carapebus, 1.64 for Niteroiense. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NIT 0–2 CAR

Form · last six in Carioca - 2

CARAPEBUS

LLLDLL0–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–4

NITEROIENSE

WWDWWW5–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	5	+6	13
2	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
3	Goytacaz	5	+1	10
4	Duque de Caxias	5	+4	9
5	Artsul	6	+2	9
6	Campo Grande	5	+1	8
7	Serrano RJ	5	0	8
8	Macaé	5	+1	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	5	−1	5
10	Nova Cidade	5	−5	2
11	Carapebus	5	−6	1
12	Audax Rio	5	−6	1