Carapebus v Goytacaz prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:30

Carapebus 0–2 Goytacaz GOYTACAZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Goytacaz win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Goytacaz win at 54%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Goytacaz 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 22–25–53
2′KICK-OFF Carapebus v Goytacaz
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Goytacaz win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
39′We said Goytacaz at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 19–38–42
41′Goytacaz find the net on 41′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–81
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Carapebus 0–1 Goytacaz
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Goytacaz win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
42′We said Goytacaz at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 4–15–81
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 4–15–81
45′HALF-TIME Carapebus 0–2 Goytacaz
46′SECOND HALF Carapebus 0–2 Goytacaz
47′A goal for Goytacaz on 45′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Carapebus 0–2 Goytacaz
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Goytacaz win: 54% at kick-off, 97% now
48′We said Goytacaz at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
78′We said Goytacaz at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Carapebus 0–2 Goytacaz
FTCarapebus 0–2 Goytacaz · Goytacaz win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Goytacaz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Carapebus 22%, draw 25%, Goytacaz 54%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Carapebus v GoytacazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Carapebus win22%

Draw25%

Goytacaz win54%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Carapebus

Goytacaz

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Goytacaz	7	+3	14
12	Carapebus	7	−11	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · goytacaz winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Goytacaz a 54% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Carapebus v Goytacaz~~0.81 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 14~~12 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Goytacaz win

Published at 48%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carapebus win	22%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Goytacaz win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Carapebus or draw	46%	–	–
Carapebus clean sheet	24%	–	–
Goytacaz clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.6%

0123450 10.1 15.6 10.8 5.6 2.3 1 9.2 10.8 8.2 4.1 2 3.5 4.7 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carapebus down, Goytacaz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 375 Carioca - 2 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.6% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Carapebus at home: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Goytacaz away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Carapebus, 1.51 for Goytacaz. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GOY 1–0 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 11 Sept

CARAPEBUS

LDLLLL1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 0–3

GOYTACAZ

DLWWDW0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	7	+6	16
2	Duque de Caxias	7	+8	15
3	Serrano RJ	8	+4	15
4	Petrópolis	8	+4	14
5	Goytacaz	7	+3	14
6	Artsul	7	+2	10
7	Campo Grande	7	−5	8
8	Macaé	7	−1	7
9	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6
10	São Cristóvão RJ	7	−2	6
11	Audax Rio	7	−6	4
12	Carapebus	7	−11	1