Carapebus v Audax Rio prediction · Carioca

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CarapebusDrawAudax Rio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Audax Rio 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Audax Rio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Carapebus 29%, draw 27%, Audax Rio 44%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Carapebus v Audax RioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Carapebus win29%

Draw27%

Audax Rio win44%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Carapebus

Audax Rio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Carioca - 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Audax Rio	9	−7	5
12	Carapebus	9	−13	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · audax rio winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Audax Rio a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Carapebus v Audax Rio~~0.98 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 25 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 5~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carapebus win	29%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Audax Rio win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Carapebus or draw	56%	–	–
Carapebus clean sheet	29%	–	–
Audax Rio clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.3 13.9 8.5 3.8 1 10.9 11.9 7.8 3.5 2 5.1 6.1 3.8 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carapebus down, Audax Rio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 386 Carioca - 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

Home and away form

Carapebus at home: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Audax Rio away: 0.75 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Carapebus, 1.30 for Audax Rio. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 25 Sept

CARAPEBUS

LLLLLD0–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–2

AUDAX RIO

LDLWLD2–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Duque de Caxias	9	+9	19
2	Niteroiense	9	+5	19
3	Serrano RJ	9	+5	18
4	Goytacaz	9	+5	18
5	Petrópolis	9	+4	15
6	Artsul	9	+2	13
7	Campo Grande	9	−3	12
8	Macaé	9	0	11
9	São Cristóvão RJ	9	−3	7
10	Nova Cidade	9	−4	6
11	Audax Rio	9	−7	5
12	Carapebus	9	−13	2