Campo Grande v Niteroiense prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Campo Grande 2–0 Niteroiense NITEROIENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Niteroiense win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Niteroiense win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Campo Grande v Niteroiense
2′Little has changed for our model: Niteroiense 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 26–27–47
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Niteroiense win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Niteroiense win 39%)
45′We said Niteroiense at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 21–43–36
45′We said Niteroiense at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 64–25–11
45′HALF-TIME Campo Grande 1–0 Niteroiense
46′SECOND HALF Campo Grande 1–0 Niteroiense
48′Campo Grande find the net on 47′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
48′We said Niteroiense at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Campo Grande 2–0 Niteroiense
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Niteroiense win: 48% at kick-off, 2% now
49′Campo Grande score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–25–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′We said Niteroiense at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 66–25–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Campo Grande 1–0 Niteroiense
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Niteroiense win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Campo Grande win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 45%)
69′A goal for Niteroiense on 69′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–19–3
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Campo Grande 2–1 Niteroiense
70′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 78–19–3
FTFULL TIME Campo Grande 2–0 Niteroiense
FTCampo Grande 2–0 Niteroiense · Niteroiense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niteroiense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Campo Grande 26%, draw 27%, Niteroiense 48%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Campo Grande v NiteroienseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Campo Grande win26%

Draw27%

Niteroiense win48%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Campo Grande

Niteroiense

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Carioca - 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niteroiense winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Niteroiense a 48% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Campo Grande v Niteroiense~~0.88 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~8 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Niteroiense win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Campo Grande win	26%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Niteroiense win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Campo Grande or draw	52%	–	–
Campo Grande clean sheet	27%	–	–
Niteroiense clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.1%

0123450 10.8 15.1 9.6 4.4 1 10.4 11.6 8.0 3.7 2 4.3 5.4 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Campo Grande down, Niteroiense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 380 Carioca - 2 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.4% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Campo Grande at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Niteroiense away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Campo Grande, 1.35 for Niteroiense. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAM 1–1 NIT · NIT 1–0 CAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 Sept

CAMPO GRANDE

WDDLLD2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–0

NITEROIENSE

WWWWLW1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	8	+7	19
2	Duque de Caxias	8	+9	18
3	Goytacaz	8	+5	17
4	Serrano RJ	8	+4	15
5	Petrópolis	8	+4	14
6	Artsul	8	+1	10
7	Macaé	8	0	10
8	Campo Grande	8	−5	9
9	São Cristóvão RJ	8	−2	7
10	Nova Cidade	8	−3	6
11	Audax Rio	8	−7	4
12	Carapebus	8	−13	1