Campo Grande v Duque de Caxias prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Campo Grande 0–3 Duque de Caxias DUQUE DE CAXIAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Duque de Caxias win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Duque de Caxias win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Campo Grande v Duque de Caxias
2′Little has changed for our model: Duque de Caxias 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 28–29–43
26′Duque de Caxias are down to ten from 24′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 25–37–38
26′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Duque de Caxias
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Duque de Caxias win 36%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Duque de Caxias win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Campo Grande 0–0 Duque de Caxias
46′We said Duque de Caxias at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 22–46–32
46′SECOND HALF Campo Grande 0–0 Duque de Caxias
49′Duque de Caxias score on 49′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Campo Grande 0–1 Duque de Caxias
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Duque de Caxias win: 44% at kick-off, 79% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Duque de Caxias win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
50′We said Duque de Caxias at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
51′Campo Grande score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–23–7 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
51′We said Duque de Caxias at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
51′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Campo Grande 1–0 Duque de Caxias
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' Duque de Caxias win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Campo Grande win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
52′We said Duque de Caxias at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 70–23–7 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
52′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 3–17–80
52′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Campo Grande
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+8' Campo Grande
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+8' Duque de Caxias win: 44% at kick-off, 29% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+8' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Campo Grande win 20%)
54′We said Duque de Caxias at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–52–29
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Duque de Caxias win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
66′We said Duque de Caxias at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
76′We said Duque de Caxias at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
81′Campo Grande have ten men and Duque de Caxias ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–7–93
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Duque de Caxias win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We said Duque de Caxias at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
94′Duque de Caxias find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′We said Duque de Caxias at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Campo Grande 0–2 Duque de Caxias
97′A goal for Duque de Caxias on 90′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
97′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Campo Grande 0–3 Duque de Caxias
FTFULL TIME Campo Grande 0–3 Duque de Caxias
FTCampo Grande 0–3 Duque de Caxias · Duque de Caxias win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Duque de Caxias are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Campo Grande 28%, draw 29%, Duque de Caxias 44%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Campo Grande v Duque de CaxiasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Campo Grande win28%

Draw29%

Duque de Caxias win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Campo Grande

Duque de Caxias

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Duque de Caxias	6	+5	12
7	Campo Grande	6	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · duque de caxias winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Duque de Caxias a 44% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Campo Grande v Duque de Caxias~~0.85 – 1.18

~~Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Campo Grande win	28%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Duque de Caxias win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Campo Grande or draw	56%	–	–
Campo Grande clean sheet	32%	–	–
Duque de Caxias clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.1%

0123450 13.1 16.1 9.0 3.7 1 12.0 11.9 7.2 2.9 2 4.9 5.4 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Campo Grande down, Duque de Caxias across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 369 Carioca - 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Campo Grande at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Duque de Caxias away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Campo Grande, 1.18 for Duque de Caxias. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DUQ 0–0 CAM · CAM 0–1 DUQ · DUQ 1–3 CAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

CAMPO GRANDE

WLWDDL1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

DUQUE DE CAXIAS

WWWLLW3–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	6	+8	16
2	Duque de Caxias	6	+5	12
3	Serrano RJ	6	+1	11
4	Goytacaz	6	+1	11
5	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
6	Artsul	7	+2	10
7	Campo Grande	6	−2	8
8	Macaé	6	0	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	6	−1	6
10	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6
11	Audax Rio	6	−7	1
12	Carapebus	6	−8	1