Audax Rio v São Cristóvão RJ prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Audax Rio 1–0 São Cristóvão RJ SÃO CRISTÓVÃO RJ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said São Cristóvão RJ win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said São Cristóvão RJ win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Audax Rio v São Cristóvão RJ
2′Much as we predicted: São Cristóvão RJ was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 31–31–38
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was São Cristóvão RJ win 33%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' São Cristóvão RJ win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
45′HALF-TIME Audax Rio 0–0 São Cristóvão RJ
46′SECOND HALF Audax Rio 0–0 São Cristóvão RJ
51′We said São Cristóvão RJ at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 22–52–26
56′We said São Cristóvão RJ at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–56–24
67′We said São Cristóvão RJ at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 16–66–18
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' São Cristóvão RJ win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′We said São Cristóvão RJ at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 11–75–13
81′We said São Cristóvão RJ at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–84–9
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' São Cristóvão RJ win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
83′A red card for São Cristóvão RJ on 83′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 6–87–7
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' São Cristóvão RJ
88′A goal for Audax Rio on 87′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
88′We said São Cristóvão RJ at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Audax Rio 1–0 São Cristóvão RJ
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Audax Rio win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
FTFULL TIME Audax Rio 1–0 São Cristóvão RJ
FTAudax Rio 1–0 São Cristóvão RJ · São Cristóvão RJ win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

São Cristóvão RJ are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Audax Rio 31%, draw 31%, São Cristóvão RJ 38%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Audax Rio v São Cristóvão RJBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Audax Rio win31%

Draw31%

São Cristóvão RJ win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Audax Rio

São Cristóvão RJ

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	São Cristóvão RJ	6	−1	6
11	Audax Rio	6	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · são cristóvão rj winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make São Cristóvão RJ a 38% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Audax Rio v São Cristóvão RJ~~0.86 – 0.99

~~Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 6~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Audax Rio win	31%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
São Cristóvão RJ win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Audax Rio or draw	62%	–	–
Audax Rio clean sheet	38%	–	–
São Cristóvão RJ clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.2%

0123450 15.6 16.2 7.6 2.6 1 14.2 12.1 6.3 2.2 2 5.8 5.5 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Audax Rio down, São Cristóvão RJ across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 369 Carioca - 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

Audax Rio at home: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). São Cristóvão RJ away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Audax Rio, 0.99 for São Cristóvão RJ. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

AUDAX RIO

LLLLDL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–1

SÃO CRISTÓVÃO RJ

DDLWLD0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	6	+8	16
2	Duque de Caxias	6	+5	12
3	Serrano RJ	6	+1	11
4	Goytacaz	6	+1	11
5	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
6	Artsul	7	+2	10
7	Campo Grande	6	−2	8
8	Macaé	6	0	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	6	−1	6
10	Nova Cidade	7	−2	6
11	Audax Rio	6	−7	1
12	Carapebus	6	−8	1