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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Carioca - 2 › Audax Rio v Goytacaz

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Audax Rio v Goytacaz

Audax Rio
1–1Full time
Goytacaz

Carioca - 2 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
Audax Rio 1–1 Goytacaz GOYTACAZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Goytacaz win43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.772

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Goytacaz win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Goytacaz was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 28–29–43
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Audax Rio v Goytacaz
  4. 25′A goal for Goytacaz on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
  5. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Audax Rio 0–1 Goytacaz
  6. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Goytacaz win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
  7. 26′We published Goytacaz at 43%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
  8. 28′We published Goytacaz at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  10. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Goytacaz
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Audax Rio 0–1 Goytacaz
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Audax Rio 0–1 Goytacaz
  13. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Audax Rio
  14. 53′We published Goytacaz at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  15. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Audax Rio
  16. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Audax Rio
  17. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Goytacaz
  18. 59′Audax Rio score on 58′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 18–56–26
  19. 59′We said Goytacaz at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 18–56–26
  20. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Audax Rio 1–1 Goytacaz
  21. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Goytacaz win: 43% at kick-off, 26% now
  22. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Goytacaz win 81%)
  23. 62′We said Goytacaz at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 17–59–24
  24. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Goytacaz win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  25. 70′We said Goytacaz at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 14–67–19
  26. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Goytacaz
  27. 77′We said Goytacaz at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 10–76–14
  28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Goytacaz win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
  29. 82′We said Goytacaz at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
  30. 90′We said Goytacaz at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–94–4
  31. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Goytacaz win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  32. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Audax Rio
  33. FTFULL TIME Audax Rio 1–1 Goytacaz
  34. FTAudax Rio 1–1 Goytacaz · Goytacaz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Goytacaz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Audax Rio 28%, draw 29%, Goytacaz 43%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Audax Rio v GoytacazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Audax Rio win28%
Draw29%
Goytacaz win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Audax Rio

Goytacaz

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Carioca - 2

Last match: 21 Oct · Carioca - 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Goytacaz8+517
11Audax Rio8−74

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · goytacaz winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Goytacaz a 43% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Audax Rio v Goytacaz0.87 – 1.16
Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 4 v 1711 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Goytacaz win

Published at 41%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Audax Rio win28%––
Draw29%––
Goytacaz win43%––
Over 2.5 goals33%––
Both teams to score38%––
Over 1.5 goals59%––
Over 3.5 goals15%––
Audax Rio or draw57%––
Audax Rio clean sheet32%––
Goytacaz clean sheet43%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.9%
0123450 13.2 15.9 8.7 3.5 1 12.2 12.0 7.2 2.9 2 5.0 5.5 3.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Audax Rio down, Goytacaz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Carioca - 2 this season · since 19 Sept

AUDAX RIO

LLDLWL0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

GOYTACAZ

LWWDWW0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Niteroiense8+719
2Duque de Caxias8+918
3Goytacaz8+517
4Serrano RJ8+415
5Petrópolis8+414
6Artsul8+110
7Macaé8010
8Campo Grande8−59
9São Cristóvão RJ8−27
10Nova Cidade8−36
11Audax Rio8−74
12Carapebus8−131

The competition's standings before kick-off.