Artsul v Nova Cidade prediction · Carioca

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Artsul 1–1 Nova Cidade ARTSUL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Artsul win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Artsul win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Artsul 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–26
1′KICK-OFF Artsul v Nova Cidade
2′Artsul find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–17–9
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Artsul 1–0 Nova Cidade
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Artsul win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
3′We said Artsul at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
18′We said Artsul at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–7
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Artsul win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Artsul 1–0 Nova Cidade
46′SECOND HALF Artsul 1–0 Nova Cidade
54′We said Artsul at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
69′We said Artsul at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Artsul win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
78′We said Artsul at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
85′A goal for Nova Cidade on 84′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 8–87–5
85′We said Artsul at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–87–5
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Artsul 1–1 Nova Cidade
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Artsul win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Artsul win 8%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Artsul win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said Artsul at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Artsul 1–1 Nova Cidade
FTArtsul 1–1 Nova Cidade · Artsul win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Artsul are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Artsul 47%, draw 26%, Nova Cidade 28%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Artsul v Nova CidadeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Artsul win47%

Draw26%

Nova Cidade win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Artsul

Nova Cidade

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Carioca - 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Carioca - 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Artsul	6	+2	9
10	Nova Cidade	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · artsul winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Artsul a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Artsul v Nova Cidade~~1.38 – 0.97

~~Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Artsul win

Published at 49%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Artsul win	47%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Nova Cidade win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Artsul or draw	72%	–	–
Artsul clean sheet	39%	–	–
Nova Cidade clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 9.4 10.3 4.6 1 14.0 11.5 5.9 2 8.9 8.2 4.0 3 4.2 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Artsul down, Nova Cidade across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 368 Carioca - 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Carioca - 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 33.3% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Artsul at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nova Cidade away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Artsul, 0.97 for Nova Cidade. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NOV 0–0 ART · ART 1–1 NOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Carioca - 2 this season · since 5 Sept

ARTSUL

WWDDLD2–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–4 · 1–1

NOVA CIDADE

LDLLDW0–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Niteroiense	6	+8	16
2	Duque de Caxias	6	+5	12
3	Serrano RJ	6	+1	11
4	Goytacaz	6	+1	11
5	Petrópolis	6	+3	10
6	Artsul	6	+2	9
7	Campo Grande	6	−2	8
8	Macaé	6	0	7
9	São Cristóvão RJ	6	−1	6
10	Nova Cidade	6	−2	5
11	Audax Rio	6	−7	1
12	Carapebus	6	−8	1