Township Rollers v Tonota prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Township RollersDrawTonota

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Township Rollers 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Township Rollers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Township Rollers 43%, draw 29%, Tonota 28%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Township Rollers v TonotaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Township Rollers win43%

Draw29%

Tonota win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Township Rollers

Tonota

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tonota	6	+6	14
11	Township Rollers	5	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · township rollers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 03:47 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Township Rollers a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Township Rollers v Tonota~~1.30 – 0.98

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 14~~11 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Township Rollers win

Published at 46%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Township Rollers win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Tonota win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Township Rollers or draw	72%	–	–
Township Rollers clean sheet	38%	–	–
Tonota clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 11.1 9.8 5.0 1 13.0 12.9 6.2 2.1 2 8.6 8.1 4.0 3 3.8 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Township Rollers down, Tonota across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Township Rollers at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tonota away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Township Rollers, 0.98 for Tonota. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

TOWNSHIP ROLLERS

DWLDL1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4

TONOTA

WDDWWW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gaborone United	5	+8	15
2	Tonota	6	+6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	+2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	+1	10
5	Orapa United	7	+1	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	−1	9
7	TAFIC	5	+2	8
8	Police XI	6	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	+1	7
10	Nico United	6	−2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	0	5
12	Enesia	6	−3	5
13	Matebele	6	−3	4
14	BDF XI	5	−4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	−4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	−4	3