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Tonota v Sua Flamingoes

Tonota

1–0Full time

Sua Flamingoes

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Tonota 1–0 Sua Flamingoes SUA FLAMINGOES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sua Flamingoes win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tonota win33%

Draw26%

Sua Flamingoes win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sua flamingoes winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Sua Flamingoes a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tonota win	33%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Sua Flamingoes win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Tonota or draw	59%	–	–
Tonota clean sheet	26%	–	–
Sua Flamingoes clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.1 10.1 7.1 3.4 1 8.9 12.2 8.2 3.9 2 5.5 7.2 4.9 2.3 3 2.3 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tonota down, Sua Flamingoes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,211 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Tonota at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Sua Flamingoes away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Tonota, 1.40 for Sua Flamingoes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

TONOTA

WDDW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

SUA FLAMINGOES

WWWDWD2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	4	+3	8
2	Sua Flamingoes	4	+2	8
3	Police XI	3	+3	7
4	Nico United	4	+2	6
5	TAFIC	3	+2	6
6	Extension Gunners	3	−1	6
7	Enesia	3	+1	5
8	Township Rollers	2	+3	4
9	BDF XI	3	−1	4
10	Centre Chiefs	4	−1	4
11	Gaborone United	1	+1	3
12	Orapa United	3	−1	2
13	Morupule Wanderers	3	−2	2
14	Matebele	4	−5	0
15	Prisons XI	4	−6	0