Sua Flamingoes v BDF XI prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 09:03

Sua Flamingoes 1–0 BDF XI SUA FLAMINGOES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sua Flamingoes win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sua Flamingoes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sua Flamingoes 58%, draw 24%, BDF XI 18%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sua Flamingoes v BDF XIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sua Flamingoes win58%

Draw24%

BDF XI win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sua Flamingoes

BDF XI

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sua Flamingoes	5	+1	8
13	BDF XI	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sua flamingoes winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Sua Flamingoes a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sua Flamingoes v BDF XI~~1.76 – 0.87

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sua Flamingoes win

Published at 57%, 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sua Flamingoes win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
BDF XI win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Sua Flamingoes or draw	82%	–	–
Sua Flamingoes clean sheet	42%	–	–
BDF XI clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 7.7 6.2 2.8 1 12.6 11.1 4.8 2 11.1 9.5 4.1 3 6.5 5.6 2.4 4 2.9 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sua Flamingoes down, BDF XI across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.4% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sua Flamingoes at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). BDF XI away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Sua Flamingoes, 0.87 for BDF XI. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BDF 1–3 SUA · SUA 0–1 BDF · SUA 4–2 BDF · BDF 0–1 SUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

SUA FLAMINGOES

WDWDL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

BDF XI

LWDL1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	5	+4	11
2	Gaborone United	3	+4	9
3	TAFIC	5	+2	8
4	Police XI	5	+2	8
5	Sua Flamingoes	5	+1	8
6	Extension Gunners	5	−1	8
7	Centre Chiefs	5	0	7
8	Galaxy	2	+3	6
9	Orapa United	5	+1	6
10	Nico United	5	0	6
11	Township Rollers	4	+2	5
12	Enesia	5	−2	5
13	BDF XI	4	−3	4
14	Prisons XI	5	−4	3
15	Morupule Wanderers	4	−4	2
16	Matebele	5	−5	1