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Prisons XI v Enesia

Prisons XI

3–1Full time

Enesia

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Prisons XI 3–1 Enesia ENESIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Enesia win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.855

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Prisons XI win25%

Draw28%

Enesia win47%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · enesia winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Enesia a 47% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Prisons XI win	25%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Enesia win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Prisons XI or draw	53%	–	–
Prisons XI clean sheet	27%	–	–
Enesia clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.1 13.6 9.3 4.5 1 9.4 12.3 8.0 3.8 2 4.5 5.6 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Prisons XI down, Enesia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,211 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Prisons XI at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Enesia away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Prisons XI, 1.39 for Enesia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

PRISONS XI

LLLLLL0–4 · 0–6 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

ENESIA

DWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	4	+3	8
2	Sua Flamingoes	4	+2	8
3	Police XI	3	+3	7
4	Nico United	4	+2	6
5	TAFIC	3	+2	6
6	Extension Gunners	3	−1	6
7	Enesia	3	+1	5
8	Township Rollers	2	+3	4
9	BDF XI	3	−1	4
10	Centre Chiefs	4	−1	4
11	Gaborone United	1	+1	3
12	Orapa United	3	−1	2
13	Morupule Wanderers	3	−2	2
14	Matebele	4	−5	0
15	Prisons XI	4	−6	0