Police XI v Nico United prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Police XIDrawNico United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Police XI 33%, draw 37%, Nico United 30%. Over 2.5 goals 20%, both teams to score 29%.

The AI’s read on Police XI v Nico UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Police XI win33%

Draw37%

Nico United win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Police XI

Nico United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Police XI	6	0	8
10	Nico United	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The model expects 0.8–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 22%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Police XI v Nico United~~0.79 – 0.73

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 6~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police XI win	33%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Nico United win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	20%	–	–
Both teams to score	29%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	45%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	7%	–	–
Police XI or draw	70%	–	–
Police XI clean sheet	48%	–	–
Nico United clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 22.3%

0123450 22.3 15.6 5.8 1 16.8 12.7 4.6 2 6.8 5.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police XI down, Nico United across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Police XI at home: 0.67 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nico United away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Police XI, 0.73 for Nico United. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NIC 1–2 POL · POL 0–1 NIC · POL 2–1 NIC · NIC 0–0 POL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

POLICE XI

WWDDLL2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

NICO UNITED

WLLWLL3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gaborone United	5	+8	15
2	Tonota	6	+6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	+2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	+1	10
5	Orapa United	7	+1	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	−1	9
7	TAFIC	5	+2	8
8	Police XI	6	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	+1	7
10	Nico United	6	−2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	0	5
12	Enesia	6	−3	5
13	Matebele	6	−3	4
14	BDF XI	5	−4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	−4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	−4	3