Police XI v Extension Gunners prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Police XI 0–0 Extension Gunners POLICE XI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Police XI win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Police XI win43%

Draw31%

Extension Gunners win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Police XI

Extension Gunners

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Police XI	3	+3	7
6	Extension Gunners	3	−1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police xi winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Police XI a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police XI win	43%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Extension Gunners win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Police XI or draw	75%	–	–
Police XI clean sheet	45%	–	–
Extension Gunners clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 14.9 11.3 4.6 1 16.2 13.1 5.1 2 9.3 7.3 2.9 3 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police XI down, Extension Gunners across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,211 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Police XI at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Extension Gunners away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Police XI, 0.80 for Extension Gunners. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~EXT 1–0 POL · POL 0–0 EXT · EXT 1–0 POL · POL 2–0 EXT

Form · last six in Premier League

POLICE XI

WDLWWD1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

EXTENSION GUNNERS

LWWWWL0–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	4	+3	8
2	Sua Flamingoes	4	+2	8
3	Police XI	3	+3	7
4	Nico United	4	+2	6
5	TAFIC	3	+2	6
6	Extension Gunners	3	−1	6
7	Enesia	3	+1	5
8	Township Rollers	2	+3	4
9	BDF XI	3	−1	4
10	Centre Chiefs	4	−1	4
11	Gaborone United	1	+1	3
12	Orapa United	3	−1	2
13	Morupule Wanderers	3	−2	2
14	Matebele	4	−5	0
15	Prisons XI	4	−6	0