Orapa United v Galaxy prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 09:03

Orapa United 2–0 Galaxy GALAXY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Galaxy win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.781

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Galaxy are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orapa United 28%, draw 27%, Galaxy 44%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Orapa United v GalaxyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Orapa United win28%

Draw27%

Galaxy win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orapa United

Galaxy

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Galaxy	2	+3	6
9	Orapa United	5	+1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · galaxy winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Galaxy a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orapa United v Galaxy~~1.05 – 1.38

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L1 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Galaxy win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orapa United win	28%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Galaxy win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Orapa United or draw	56%	–	–
Orapa United clean sheet	25%	–	–
Galaxy clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.2 11.9 8.4 3.9 1 9.0 12.8 8.6 4.0 2 4.9 6.6 4.5 2.1 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orapa United down, Galaxy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.4% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orapa United at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Galaxy away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Orapa United, 1.38 for Galaxy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ORA 1–1 GAL · GAL 3–0 ORA · GAL 1–1 ORA · ORA 1–1 GAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

ORAPA UNITED

DLDWD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–1

GALAXY

WW2–0 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	5	+4	11
2	Gaborone United	3	+4	9
3	TAFIC	5	+2	8
4	Police XI	5	+2	8
5	Sua Flamingoes	5	+1	8
6	Extension Gunners	5	−1	8
7	Centre Chiefs	5	0	7
8	Galaxy	2	+3	6
9	Orapa United	5	+1	6
10	Nico United	5	0	6
11	Township Rollers	4	+2	5
12	Enesia	5	−2	5
13	BDF XI	4	−3	4
14	Prisons XI	5	−4	3
15	Morupule Wanderers	4	−4	2
16	Matebele	5	−5	1