Nico United v Gaborone United prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 09:03

Nico United 0–2 Gaborone United GABORONE UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gaborone United win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gaborone United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nico United 16%, draw 27%, Gaborone United 57%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Nico United v Gaborone UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nico United win16%

Draw27%

Gaborone United win57%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nico United

Gaborone United

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gaborone United	3	+4	9
10	Nico United	5	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gaborone united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Gaborone United a 57% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nico United v Gaborone United~~0.65 – 1.48

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 9~~10 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gaborone United win

Published at 56%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nico United win	16%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Gaborone United win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Nico United or draw	43%	–	–
Nico United clean sheet	23%	–	–
Gaborone United clean sheet	53%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 17.4%

0123450 12.4 17.4 13.0 6.5 2.5 1 7.5 11.4 8.1 4.0 2 2.6 3.7 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nico United down, Gaborone United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.4% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nico United at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gaborone United away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.65 goals for Nico United, 1.48 for Gaborone United. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NIC 0–0 GAB · GAB 1–1 NIC · GAB 3–0 NIC · NIC 0–0 GAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

NICO UNITED

WLLWL3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–2

GABORONE UNITED

WWW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	5	+4	11
2	Gaborone United	3	+4	9
3	TAFIC	5	+2	8
4	Police XI	5	+2	8
5	Sua Flamingoes	5	+1	8
6	Extension Gunners	5	−1	8
7	Centre Chiefs	5	0	7
8	Galaxy	2	+3	6
9	Orapa United	5	+1	6
10	Nico United	5	0	6
11	Township Rollers	4	+2	5
12	Enesia	5	−2	5
13	BDF XI	4	−3	4
14	Prisons XI	5	−4	3
15	Morupule Wanderers	4	−4	2
16	Matebele	5	−5	1