Morupule Wanderers v Prisons XI prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 09:03

Morupule Wanderers 0–0 Prisons XI MORUPULE WANDERERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Morupule Wanderers win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.007

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Morupule Wanderers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Morupule Wanderers 61%, draw 22%, Prisons XI 17%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Morupule Wanderers v Prisons XIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Morupule Wanderers win61%

Draw22%

Prisons XI win17%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Morupule Wanderers

Prisons XI

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Prisons XI	5	−4	3
15	Morupule Wanderers	4	−4	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · morupule wanderers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Morupule Wanderers a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Morupule Wanderers v Prisons XI~~1.90 – 0.84

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 2 v 3~~15 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Morupule Wanderers win

Published at 63%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Morupule Wanderers win	61%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Prisons XI win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Morupule Wanderers or draw	83%	–	–
Morupule Wanderers clean sheet	43%	–	–
Prisons XI clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.1 5.6 2.5 1 12.0 10.4 4.4 2 11.2 9.3 3.9 3 7.2 5.8 2.4 4 3.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Morupule Wanderers down, Prisons XI across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.4% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Morupule Wanderers at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Prisons XI away: 0.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Morupule Wanderers, 0.84 for Prisons XI. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PRI 1–0 MOR · MOR 1–1 PRI · PRI 2–2 MOR · MOR 2–2 PRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

MORUPULE WANDERERS

LDDL0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

PRISONS XI

LLLLW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	5	+4	11
2	Gaborone United	3	+4	9
3	TAFIC	5	+2	8
4	Police XI	5	+2	8
5	Sua Flamingoes	5	+1	8
6	Extension Gunners	5	−1	8
7	Centre Chiefs	5	0	7
8	Galaxy	2	+3	6
9	Orapa United	5	+1	6
10	Nico United	5	0	6
11	Township Rollers	4	+2	5
12	Enesia	5	−2	5
13	BDF XI	4	−3	4
14	Prisons XI	5	−4	3
15	Morupule Wanderers	4	−4	2
16	Matebele	5	−5	1