Matebele v Township Rollers prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 03:35

Matebele 4–2 Township Rollers TOWNSHIP ROLLERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Township Rollers win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Township Rollers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Matebele 26%, draw 29%, Township Rollers 45%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Matebele v Township RollersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Matebele win26%

Draw29%

Township Rollers win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Matebele

Township Rollers

8Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Township Rollers	4	+2	5
16	Matebele	5	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · township rollers winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Township Rollers a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Matebele v Township Rollers~~0.92 – 1.29

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 5~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Matebele win	26%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Township Rollers win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Matebele or draw	55%	–	–
Matebele clean sheet	28%	–	–
Township Rollers clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.5 13.9 9.1 4.0 1 9.9 13.0 8.2 3.6 2 4.7 5.9 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Matebele down, Township Rollers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,228 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.3% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Matebele at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Township Rollers away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Matebele, 1.29 for Township Rollers. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAT 1–0 TOW · TOW 2–0 MAT · MAT 2–2 TOW · TOW 1–0 MAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

MATEBELE

LLLLD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–2

TOWNSHIP ROLLERS

DWLD1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	6	+6	14
2	Gaborone United	4	+6	12
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	+2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	+1	10
5	Orapa United	6	+3	9
6	TAFIC	5	+2	8
7	Police XI	6	0	8
8	Extension Gunners	5	−1	8
9	Galaxy	3	+1	6
10	Nico United	6	−2	6
11	Township Rollers	4	+2	5
12	Enesia	6	−3	5
13	BDF XI	5	−4	4
14	Prisons XI	6	−4	4
15	Morupule Wanderers	5	−4	3
16	Matebele	5	−5	1