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Galaxy v Nico United

Galaxy

2–0Full time

Nico United

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Galaxy 2–0 Nico United GALAXY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Galaxy win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Galaxy win60%

Draw25%

Nico United win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · galaxy winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Galaxy a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galaxy win	60%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Nico United win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Galaxy or draw	85%	–	–
Galaxy clean sheet	54%	–	–
Nico United clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 11.3 6.7 2.2 1 17.1 10.9 3.4 2 13.6 8.4 2.7 3 7.3 4.5 4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galaxy down, Nico United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,211 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Galaxy at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nico United away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Galaxy, 0.63 for Nico United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NIC 2–1 GAL · GAL 2–1 NIC · NIC 0–1 GAL · GAL 0–0 NIC

Form · last six in Premier League

GALAXY

DWDDLW0–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 4–1

NICO UNITED

LLWLLW0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	4	+3	8
2	Sua Flamingoes	4	+2	8
3	Police XI	3	+3	7
4	Nico United	4	+2	6
5	TAFIC	3	+2	6
6	Extension Gunners	3	−1	6
7	Enesia	3	+1	5
8	Township Rollers	2	+3	4
9	BDF XI	3	−1	4
10	Centre Chiefs	4	−1	4
11	Gaborone United	1	+1	3
12	Orapa United	3	−1	2
13	Morupule Wanderers	3	−2	2
14	Matebele	4	−5	0
15	Prisons XI	4	−6	0