Gaborone United v Orapa United prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gaborone UnitedDrawOrapa United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gaborone United 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gaborone United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gaborone United 62%, draw 23%, Orapa United 15%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Gaborone United v Orapa UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gaborone United win62%

Draw23%

Orapa United win15%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gaborone United

Orapa United

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gaborone United	4	+6	12
5	Orapa United	6	+3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gaborone united winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Gaborone United a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gaborone United v Orapa United~~1.76 – 0.73

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D0 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gaborone United win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gaborone United win	62%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Orapa United win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Gaborone United or draw	85%	–	–
Gaborone United clean sheet	49%	–	–
Orapa United clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 8.8 5.8 2.2 1 14.4 10.8 3.8 2 12.8 9.2 3.4 3 7.5 5.4 4 3.4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gaborone United down, Orapa United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gaborone United at home: 3.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Orapa United away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Gaborone United, 0.73 for Orapa United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GAB 6–2 ORA · ORA 0–1 GAB · ORA 2–3 GAB · GAB 2–1 ORA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

GABORONE UNITED

WWWW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

ORAPA UNITED

DLDWDW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	6	+6	14
2	Gaborone United	4	+6	12
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	+2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	+1	10
5	Orapa United	6	+3	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	−1	9
7	TAFIC	5	+2	8
8	Police XI	6	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	+1	7
10	Nico United	6	−2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	0	5
12	Enesia	6	−3	5
13	Matebele	6	−3	4
14	BDF XI	5	−4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	−4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	−4	3