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Gaborone United v Morupule Wanderers

Gaborone United

3–1Full time

Morupule Wanderers

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Gaborone United 3–1 Morupule Wanderers GABORONE UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gaborone United win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gaborone United win at 67%.
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Gaborone United 2–0 Morupule Wanderers
45′SECOND HALF Gaborone United 2–0 Morupule Wanderers
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Gaborone United 3–0 Morupule Wanderers
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Gaborone United 3–1 Morupule Wanderers
FTFULL TIME Gaborone United 3–1 Morupule Wanderers
FTGaborone United 3–1 Morupule Wanderers · Gaborone United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gaborone United win67%

Draw20%

Morupule Wanderers win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gaborone united winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Gaborone United a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gaborone United win	67%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Morupule Wanderers win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Gaborone United or draw	88%	–	–
Gaborone United clean sheet	49%	–	–
Morupule Wanderers clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.1%

0123450 6.9 4.6 1 13.1 9.5 3.4 2 13.1 9.2 3.3 3 8.8 6.2 2.2 4 4.5 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gaborone United down, Morupule Wanderers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,211 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gaborone United at home: 3.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Morupule Wanderers away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Gaborone United, 0.72 for Morupule Wanderers. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GAB 1–0 MOR · MOR 1–2 GAB · GAB 3–1 MOR · MOR 4–2 GAB

Form · last six in Premier League

GABORONE UNITED

WLWWWW6–2 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

MORUPULE WANDERERS

LWWLDD1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	4	+3	8
2	Sua Flamingoes	4	+2	8
3	Police XI	3	+3	7
4	Nico United	4	+2	6
5	TAFIC	3	+2	6
6	Extension Gunners	3	−1	6
7	Enesia	3	+1	5
8	Township Rollers	2	+3	4
9	BDF XI	3	−1	4
10	Centre Chiefs	4	−1	4
11	Gaborone United	1	+1	3
12	Orapa United	3	−1	2
13	Morupule Wanderers	3	−2	2
14	Matebele	4	−5	0
15	Prisons XI	4	−6	0