Extension Gunners v TAFIC prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Extension Gunners 1–1 TAFIC TAFIC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said TAFIC win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TAFIC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Extension Gunners 24%, draw 28%, TAFIC 48%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Extension Gunners v TAFICBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Extension Gunners win24%

Draw28%

TAFIC win48%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Extension Gunners

TAFIC

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	TAFIC	4	+2	7
7	Extension Gunners	4	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tafic winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make TAFIC a 48% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Extension Gunners v TAFIC~~0.87 – 1.36

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · TAFIC win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Extension Gunners win	24%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
TAFIC win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Extension Gunners or draw	52%	–	–
Extension Gunners clean sheet	26%	–	–
TAFIC clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.3%

0123450 11.2 14.3 9.8 4.5 1 9.3 12.7 8.4 3.8 2 4.2 5.5 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Extension Gunners down, TAFIC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.4% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Extension Gunners at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). TAFIC away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Extension Gunners, 1.36 for TAFIC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EXT 3–1 TAF · TAF 0–0 EXT · TAF 3–1 EXT · EXT 1–2 TAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

EXTENSION GUNNERS

WWLD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0

TAFIC

LWWD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	5	+4	11
2	Gaborone United	3	+4	9
3	Police XI	5	+2	8
4	Sua Flamingoes	5	+1	8
5	TAFIC	4	+2	7
6	Centre Chiefs	5	0	7
7	Extension Gunners	4	−1	7
8	Galaxy	2	+3	6
9	Orapa United	5	+1	6
10	Nico United	5	0	6
11	Township Rollers	4	+2	5
12	Enesia	5	−2	5
13	BDF XI	4	−3	4
14	Prisons XI	5	−4	3
15	Morupule Wanderers	4	−4	2
16	Matebele	5	−5	1