Extension Gunners v Sua Flamingoes prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Extension GunnersDrawSua Flamingoes

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sua Flamingoes 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sua Flamingoes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Extension Gunners 23%, draw 26%, Sua Flamingoes 52%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Extension Gunners v Sua FlamingoesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Extension Gunners win23%

Draw26%

Sua Flamingoes win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Extension Gunners

Sua Flamingoes

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	+2	11
6	Extension Gunners	6	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sua flamingoes winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 03:47 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Sua Flamingoes a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Extension Gunners v Sua Flamingoes~~0.96 – 1.61

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sua Flamingoes win

Published at 53%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Extension Gunners win	23%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Sua Flamingoes win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Extension Gunners or draw	48%	–	–
Extension Gunners clean sheet	21%	–	–
Sua Flamingoes clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.3 12.0 9.8 5.3 2.2 1 7.2 12.0 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 3.7 5.6 4.4 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Extension Gunners down, Sua Flamingoes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Extension Gunners at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sua Flamingoes away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Extension Gunners, 1.61 for Sua Flamingoes. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SUA 3–0 EXT · EXT 1–0 SUA · SUA 4–0 EXT · EXT 1–0 SUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

EXTENSION GUNNERS

WWLDDD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

SUA FLAMINGOES

WDWDLW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gaborone United	5	+8	15
2	Tonota	6	+6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	+2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	+1	10
5	Orapa United	7	+1	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	−1	9
7	TAFIC	5	+2	8
8	Police XI	6	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	+1	7
10	Nico United	6	−2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	0	5
12	Enesia	6	−3	5
13	Matebele	6	−3	4
14	BDF XI	5	−4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	−4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	−4	3