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BDF XI v Orapa United

BDF XI

2–4Full time

Orapa United

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

BDF XI 2–4 Orapa United ORAPA UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orapa United win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

BDF XI win31%

Draw30%

Orapa United win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orapa united winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Orapa United a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BDF XI win	31%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Orapa United win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
BDF XI or draw	61%	–	–
BDF XI clean sheet	32%	–	–
Orapa United clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 12.1 13.3 7.8 3.1 1 11.3 13.4 7.6 3.0 2 5.8 6.5 3.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BDF XI down, Orapa United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,211 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.44 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BDF XI at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Orapa United away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for BDF XI, 1.16 for Orapa United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ORA 2–0 BDF · BDF 2–3 ORA · BDF 1–1 ORA · ORA 1–1 BDF

Form · last six in Premier League

BDF XI

LLLLWD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

ORAPA UNITED

LDWDLD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tonota	4	+3	8
2	Sua Flamingoes	4	+2	8
3	Police XI	3	+3	7
4	Nico United	4	+2	6
5	TAFIC	3	+2	6
6	Extension Gunners	3	−1	6
7	Enesia	3	+1	5
8	Township Rollers	2	+3	4
9	BDF XI	3	−1	4
10	Centre Chiefs	4	−1	4
11	Gaborone United	1	+1	3
12	Orapa United	3	−1	2
13	Morupule Wanderers	3	−2	2
14	Matebele	4	−5	0
15	Prisons XI	4	−6	0