BDF XI v Morupule Wanderers prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BDF XIDrawMorupule Wanderers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Morupule Wanderers 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Morupule Wanderers just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: BDF XI 35%, draw 29%, Morupule Wanderers 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on BDF XI v Morupule WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

BDF XI win35%

Draw29%

Morupule Wanderers win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BDF XI

Morupule Wanderers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Botswana)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	BDF XI	5	−4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	−4	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · morupule wanderers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Morupule Wanderers a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BDF XI v Morupule Wanderers~~1.14 – 1.18

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L3 · W0 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~14 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Morupule Wanderers win

Published at 37%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BDF XI win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Morupule Wanderers win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
BDF XI or draw	64%	–	–
BDF XI clean sheet	31%	–	–
Morupule Wanderers clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.4 11.3 6.8 2.7 1 10.9 13.4 7.6 3.0 2 6.4 7.4 4.3 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BDF XI down, Morupule Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BDF XI at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Morupule Wanderers away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for BDF XI, 1.18 for Morupule Wanderers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MOR 1–1 BDF · BDF 0–2 MOR · BDF 2–2 MOR · MOR 2–1 BDF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

BDF XI

LWDLL1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 0–1

MORUPULE WANDERERS

LDDLD0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gaborone United	5	+8	15
2	Tonota	6	+6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	+2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	+1	10
5	Orapa United	7	+1	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	−1	9
7	TAFIC	5	+2	8
8	Police XI	6	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	+1	7
10	Nico United	6	−2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	0	5
12	Enesia	6	−3	5
13	Matebele	6	−3	4
14	BDF XI	5	−4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	−4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	−4	3