Zrinjski v Radnik Bijeljina prediction · Premijer Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Zrinjski 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina ZRINJSKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zrinjski win~~78%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.072

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zrinjski win at 78%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zrinjski was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
1′KICK-OFF Zrinjski v Radnik Bijeljina
5′We published Zrinjski at 78%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Zrinjski 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Zrinjski win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
6′A goal for Zrinjski on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
10′A. Ilic scores for Zrinjski on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 91–7–2
45′HALF-TIME Zrinjski 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina
45′SECOND HALF Zrinjski 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina
79′We published Zrinjski at 78%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zrinjski · On: D. Lagumdzija · Off: M. Cuic
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Zrinjski win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Zrinjski · On: S. Cvetkovic · Off: K. Abramovic
89′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Radnik Bijeljina · On: B. Dimitric · Off: O. Klenpic
90′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Radnik Bijeljina · On: A. Ijoma · Off: A. Markovic
91′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zrinjski · On: S. Jakovljevic · Off: M. Vranjkovic
91′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zrinjski · On: H. Ljukovac · Off: A. Ilic
91′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Radnik Bijeljina · On: L. Mihai · Off: H. Karjasevic
91′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Radnik Bijeljina · On: E. Crnko · Off: M. Andacic
93′Full time, 1–0. We called Zrinjski at 78% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Zrinjski 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina
FTZrinjski 1–0 Radnik Bijeljina · Zrinjski win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zrinjski are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zrinjski 78%, draw 14%, Radnik Bijeljina 8%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Zrinjski v Radnik BijeljinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zrinjski win78%

Draw14%

Radnik Bijeljina win8%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadion pod Bijelim Brijegom

RefereeM. Gigovic

Line-ups

Zrinjski

4-2-3-1

Radnik Bijeljina

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zrinjski

Radnik Bijeljina

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Premijer Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Premijer Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Zrinjski

4-2-3-1

18 Goran Karačić

19 Marko Vranjković

15 Karlo Stapić

6 Igor Savić

12 Petar Mamić

20 Antonio Ivančić

10 Mario Čuić

77 Karlo Abramović

17 Antonio Ilić

25 Mario Ćuže

99 Nemanja Bilbija

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · Dan Lagumdzija

26 · Stefan Cvetković

27 · Slobodan Jakovljević

80 · Hamza Ljukovac

37 · Darick Kobie Morris

31 · Zvonimir Šubarić

40 · Branko Ćurdo

24 · Toma Palić

8 · Ivica Vidović

42 · Marijan Ćavar

95 · Antonio Arapović

Radnik Bijeljina

4-4-2

1 Dušan Marković

14 Andrija Marković

66 Miladin Stevanović

5 Blondon Meyapya Fongain

3 Slaviša Radović

77 Mohamed Ghorzi

19 Huso Karjašević

32 Mateo Andačić

70 Ateef Konate

29 Danilo Teodorović

11 Ognjen Klenpić

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · Božidar Dimitrić

99 · Antoine Desouza

88 · Luca Mihai

10 · Emanuel Črnko

27 · Vedran Kjoševski

22 · Mustafa Šukilović

7 · Indy Boonen

8 · Tino Blaž Lauš

17 · Luka Cvetićanin

18 · Igor Spaić

21 · Marko Bardak

Our number · zrinjski winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

78% The market76%

Us78%

~~Market~~76%

We make Zrinjski a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zrinjski v Radnik Bijeljina~~2.53 – 0.62

~~Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 1 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 8~~1 v 9

~~The market · Zrinjski win~~76% · ours 78%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zrinjski win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zrinjski win	78%	76%	+2
Draw	14%	16%	−2
Radnik Bijeljina win	8%	8%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	56%	+4
Both teams to score	42%	41%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	36%	+3
Zrinjski or draw	92%	92%	0
Zrinjski clean sheet	54%	–	–
Radnik Bijeljina clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.5%

0123450 4.3 3.0 1 11.2 6.5 2.1 2 13.5 8.3 2.6 3 11.3 6.9 2.2 4 7.2 4.4 5 3.8 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Zrinjski down, Radnik Bijeljina across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,021 Premijer Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premijer Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zrinjski at home: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Radnik Bijeljina away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.53 goals for Zrinjski, 0.62 for Radnik Bijeljina. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAD 1–5 ZRI · RAD 0–1 ZRI · ZRI 2–0 RAD · RAD 0–0 ZRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premijer Liga this season · since 1 Sept

ZRINJSKI

WWLWWW3–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 6–2 · 3–0

RADNIK BIJELJINA

DLLDWD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski	10	+19	27
2	Borac Banja Luka	9	+10	22
3	FK Sarajevo	10	+1	15
4	Siroki Brijeg	10	0	13
5	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	10	−1	13
6	BSK Banja Luka	10	−4	9
7	Čelik	10	−4	9
8	Sloga Doboj	10	−8	9
9	Radnik Bijeljina	10	−5	8
10	Velež	9	−8	8